Economic crisis, policy choices, anti-incumbency shape Lanka’s presidential race

President Ranil Wickremesinghe, Sajith Premadasa, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, Namal Rajapaksa 

•  The present presidential election is conducted at a time when the country is at a crossroads
• The economic crisis of 2022   eroded trust in the mainstream political parties that governed this country since Independence

The presidential race kicked off last Saturday by four main candidates- President Ranil Wickremesinghe, Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) leader Sajith Premadasa, National People’s Power (NPP) leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake and Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna Namal Rajapaksa– stoking voter enthusiasm to participate in the presidential poll to be conducted on September 21 to elect the next executive president of Sri Lanka.

As usual, election pledges garbed in rhetorical languages are made this time too, primarily   aimed at attracting voters.  Such a cacophony of voices is nothing unusual during election times.  Every national election had its own significance in contemporary history of Sri Lanka which began its social, economic and political evolution after severing links with British colonialism in 1948  to become an independent state and a Republic in 1972  changing its name from ‘Ceylon’ to ‘Sri Lanka’ – a name that had been used from the days of the ancient Sinhalese kings but changed after foreign powers took over the country after 1505. 

Be that as it may, the present presidential election is conducted at a time when the country is at a crossroads. People have been given  the opportunity to decide on their next ruler two years after it experienced its worst ever economic crisis in 2022. The country was declared bankrupt in April, 2022.  Now debt restructuring has been done, but much remains to be done to unleash the full potential of the country.

Significant milestone 

Sri Lanka achieved a significant milestone in its economic revitalisation by finalising comprehensive debt restructuring agreements with key bilateral creditors since then. It   concluded negotiations with the Official Creditor Committee (OCC) and China EXIM   Bank, marking pivotal strides towards stabilising its financial footing amid recent economic challenges. These agreements, valued at a combined US$ 10 billion, encompass restructuring arrangements with major bilateral lenders under the auspices of the OCC, co-chaired by Japan, India, and France.  

Now, there is a respite till 2028 for debt servicing. The country is not yet out of the woods since it faces the task of rebuilding its economy exponentially within the next five years so that it can sustain itself and resettle the debts after the moratorium ends.

Each presidential candidate is expected to announce their plans aimed at developing the country with the focus on improving the living condition of people who now suffer from elevated price levels of essential commodities and lack of income generation opportunities.

The presidential candidates, be it representing various political parties and alliances or contesting independently, are entitled to work out their manifestos based on their distinct political identities.  However, they will naturally find it difficult to stay completely away from the IMF programme in the evolution of their policies.  
Now the campaign trails of every candidate have begun. They are not in full swing since the day of polling is almost one month away from now, though.     

 
Campaign trail 

Setting off his campaign trail from Anuradhapura, the ancient capital of Sri Lanka,   the President laid emphasis on his track record of the past two years during which he brought about economic stability ending snaking queues for fuel and gas.  

His campaign   focuses on continuity of the same programme. He also   emphasized the importance of staying the course with the IMF programme and international debt restructuring agreements. He argues that his leadership is essential to maintaining stability and ensuring that the economic recovery remains on track.

Premadasa, as the SJB candidate,   talks about aims to balance economic reforms with social welfare programmes. His campaign focuses on reducing the burden on the middle class and the poor, who have been the most affected by the economic downturn. 

 
Hailing from a Marxists political background,  Dissanayake says he advocates a radical departure   from the traditional economic policies that have governed Sri Lanka. Dissanayake’s rhetoric resonates with those who feel betrayed by the established political parties and who are looking for a more equitable distribution of opportunities. However, he will need to demonstrate how his proposals can realistically address the country’s debt obligations and attract the necessary investment to kick start economic growth. 

Namal Rajapaksa was forced into contest this time at the last minute because the chosen candidate finally backed off from the race.  Clad in his traditional family attire, he tries to sport a look resembling his father Mahinda Rajapaksa who ruled this country for two consecutive terms. Those days, he managed to build a personal base around him, and Namal is now in the fray to retain this base as a launching pad for his future.

Tamil and Muslim communities

Mahinda Rajapaksa was unpopular among Tamil and Muslim communities in the North and the East. Learning a lesson from his father’s failure,   Namal has stepped up action to consolidate his base in the North. The SLPP politburo   now comprises Geethanath Cassilingam, a young Tamil politician hailing from Jaffna to lay the groundwork for him.   

As they roll out their plans, voter behavior remains fluid in most cases, a phenomenon not seen at the previous presidential elections.  A significant number of voters appear to be weighing options. There are key factors that affect their decisions this time. 

 
The economic crisis of 2022   eroded trust in the mainstream political parties that governed this country since Independence. Many voters feel that successive governments have failed to protect their interests, leading to widespread disillusionment.  This is a challenge for the traditional parties to restore public faith in them. No matter what, Sri Lanka has also been a resilient country in the face of crises – either natural or man-made.  As a country, it bounced back from the destruction caused by the 30-year old war, the tsunami disaster and all.
Though the country is not yet fully out of the woods, it achieved normalcy. The economy is now back on track.  It has triggered a political discourse whether the country should forge ahead with the current set of policies instead of altering the course.

Policy continuity

  On one hand, there is a case for policy continuity—arguing that the current strategies are necessary for long-term stability and growth. On the other hand, the inconveniences and hardships caused by these policies, coupled with perceptions of widespread corruption, have fueled calls for change. Voters are faced with a critical decision: whether to stick with the current course in hopes of eventual recovery or to support a candidate promising a different approach, potentially addressing immediate grievances.  Voters will also consider this as a chance to vent their anger against the traditional forces in politics. 

The picture will be clear in another couple of weeks’ time. By that time, the candidates would have declared their manifestos leading to a heightened political debate.