Geopolitical significance of Narendra Modi’s visit to Russia

Ties between India and Russia remained strong notwithstanding Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine

• India has maintained that there cannot be restoration of normalcy in its relations with China as long as the situation on the border remains abnormal
• An angry US President Joe Biden did not accept India’s invitation to be the Chief Guest at the Republic Day celebrations on January 26, 2024 though he cooled it later

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s State visit to Russia from July 8 to 9, is significant because it will be taking place when India’s relations with the US are showing unmistakable strains and ties with China continue to be in a logjam.

Modi’s visit is expected to reaffirm and further strengthen India’s historically strong ties with Russia and restore strategic balance in India’s foreign policy.

India looks at Russia as a counterweight to the US and China. Besides the geopolitical relevance, there are key bilateral issues between India and Russia that need to be attended to.

There is a payment issue regarding oil imports from Russia. Russia has been a major supplier of crude oil to India at a concessional rate. The oil trade circumvents US sanctions.

Trade route 

The other matter to be discussed is giving concrete shape to the Chennai-Vladivostok maritime route, which is the shortest and cheapest trade route between India and Russia. Thirdly, the Reciprocal Exchange of Logistics Agreement (RELOS) will have to be operationalised to pave the way for defence deals.

Partly because of the growing defence ties with the US, Prime Minister Modi did not visit Russia after 2015. But as per established practice, Modi and Putin should have had an annual summit. 

Commenting on the Moscow visit, The Hindusaid that the visit will signal to the US and the West, that India intends to continue to “balance ties” between the West and the East and that it cannot be pressed to  collaborate with the West on Ukraine against Russia nor can the West force India to fight with China militarily.

As the Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar once told a TV interviewer, India cannot be expected to fight a war with China whose economy is five times bigger than India’s. Various reasons are given for the deterioration of Indi-US ties despite the huge arms purchases running into billions of dollars and the public display of bonhomie with frequent references to “shared values.”

According to Indo-American scholar Dr. Ashely Tellis and Dr. Daniel Markey of the US Institute of Peace, India and the US are not “natural allies” wedded to democracy in contrast to China and Russia.

India has not proved to be a firm strategic ally of the order of the UK and the rest of the West, they say. And India does not seem to be eager to go to war against China as the AUKUS partners are, even though there are huge issues over the border.

The killing of Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada allegedly by Indian agents and the alleged Indian plan to kill another Sikh separatist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun in the US have irked Canada and the US. Nijjar is a Canadian national and Pannun is a US national.

Canada is investigating the Indian involvement in Nijjar’s killing. But  India has strongly denied any role. Regarding Pannun, however, India has said that it will look into the American allegation.

The nationalist opinion in India is that the US and Canada have wronged India by criticising it for taking action to defend its territorial integrity against separatists operating from safe havens abroad.

The former Indian Intelligence chief A.S.Dulat told www.wire.in that the US could be using the Nijjar and Pannun cases to wrest some strategic concessions from India. But India is reluctant to give in despite its dependence on the US for sophisticated defence equipment and intelligence to match the technologically advanced Chinese forces massed on the Sino-Indian border.

India has refused to work with the UN on Iran. Most recently, it has refused to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Slamming India’s record, Daniel Markley wrote: “Ever since Narendra Modi became the Indian Prime Minister nine years ago, India’s status as a democracy has become increasingly suspect. The world’s largest democracy has seen an upsurge in violence directed at its Muslim minority, often whipped up by prominent politicians. It is trying to strip citizenship from millions of Muslim residents.”

“It is muzzling the press and silencing opposition figures. The Biden administration, having cast itself as a vocal champion of democratic ideals, therefore finds itself on shaky ground whenever it characterises the United States’ partnership with India as one of shared values.”

An angry US President Joe Biden did not accept India’s invitation to be the Chief Guest at the Republic Day celebrations on January 26, 2024 though he cooled it later.

Issues with China

India has grave and long-standing issues with China. India-China relations remain frozen because of these conflicts.

Besides the 1962 border war, which lasted several weeks, on the Sino-Indian border in Eastern Ladakh there was a serious standoff in April 2020. India and China have had several rounds of diplomatic and military level meetings on the situation along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) but with little or no effect.

India has maintained that there cannot be restoration of normalcy in its relations with China as long as the situation on the border remains abnormal.

While India recognises China’s sovereignty over Tibet (though giving shelter to the Tibetan spiritual leader Dalai Lama on humanitarian grounds) China continues to claim the Indian State of Arunachal Pradesh calling it “Southern Tibet”.

China holds several thousand square kilometres of Indian territory in Ladakh, tries to encroach on India’s sphere of influence in South Asia and gives unstinted support India’s arch-rival, Pakistan.

China keeps pressing India to delink the border issue and foster economic ties, pointing to the burgeoning bilateral trade, which  touched US$ 118.4 billion this year. But despite the growing trade, India is unwilling to improve ties insisting that China should observe the 1993 agreement on the management of the border, a pact which ensured peace till 2020.

But there is no indication that China is ready to do so.

India appears to be avoiding summits in which China will be present. As such, instead of Prime Minister Modi, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar will attend the Shanghai Corporation Organization (SCO) Summit in Kazakhstan this week. It remains to be seen if Modi will return to Russia for the BRICS summit in October. In both SCO and BRICS China is a founding member.

Why Preference for Russia?

Explaining why India has been so close to Russia, External Affairs Minister Jaishankar said at a meeting with Indians in Singapore that Russia helped India at crucial moments.

“So, if I do my calculations from my perspective and my experiences, I will get the answer. And the answer in this case is that Russia is a country with which we have always had a positive relationship. Both India and Russia have taken that extra care to look after each other’s interests,” he said.

Ties between India and Russia remained strong notwithstanding Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. India has not yet condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The Soviet Union helped mediate a cease-fire between India and Pakistan to end the 1965 war over Kashmir. Then, during India’s war with Pakistan in December 1971, the Soviet Union used its veto to support India at the UN Security Council. The US, on the other hand, sent an aircraft carrier to the Bay of Bengal in support of Pakistan.
India and the Soviet Union signed a treaty of peace, friendship, and cooperation in August 1971. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, it was replaced by the Treaty of Indo-Russian Friendship and Cooperation in January 1993.

India has so far avoided voting against Russia or criticising Russian President Vladimir Putin since the invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022.

In the early 1990s, the USSR accounted for 70% of Indian Army weapons, 80% of its Air Force systems, and 85% of its Navy platform. India bought its first aircraft carrier, INS Vikramaditya, from Russia in 2004. India’s Air Force presently operates over 410 Soviet and Russian fighters, according to reports.