How Anura Scented the Sweet Smell of Success in 2024 Presidential Race

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake addressing an election rally (File Photo)

The  Presidential election of November 2019 and the Parliamentary elections of August 2020 proved to be  huge disappointments to the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and its leader Anura Kumara  Dissanayake (AKD). As is well known, the JVP had in a strategic move, contested both polls  as part of a new political front under a fresh symbol, the compass (Malimawa/Thisaikaatti). The JVP formed a broad  political front named  National People’s Front (NPP) called Jathika Jana Balawegaya in Sinhala and Theseeya Makkal Sakthi in Tamil. Nominally the JVP was a first among equals in the NPP but in practice, the JVP was the dominant entity in the NPP and was in control. 
The JVP clad itself in NPP attire for  a single and simple reason. The JVP wanted to capture power through the ballot. It had twice tried to overthrow the Sri Lankan state through the bullet and failed both times. Although the JVP had hundreds of dedicated party activists and their mass meetings were attended by thousands of people, the crimson comrades found themselves unable to garner votes beyond a certain limit. It appeared that the JVP destiny was to be the third party in Parliament and be  the perpetual third force in Sri Lankan politics. 
The JVP therefore needed to re-invent itself as the JVP-led NPP. The content would be the same but the form would appear to be different. The JVP required this NPP makeover for two reasons. Firstly it  wanted the older generation who experienced JVP atrocities in the past to “forget” them and believe in a  reformed JVP transformed into the new NPP. Secondly the JVP wanted  to attract the younger generation by promoting itself as the progressive NPP and live down the violent past. 

Old JVP Wine in New NPP  Bottle 

Despite the optimism of the JVP, the JVP led NPP fared poorly in both the 2019 and 2020 polls. It seemed as if the Sri Lankan voters had seen through the JVP ruse and recognised that the change in nomenclature was merely a case of old JVP wine in a new NPP bottle. Furthermore the electoral results indicated that the Party had done better as the JVP in the polls when compared to the new Avatar NPP. 
For instance, the JVP’s founder leader Rohana Wijeweera had polled 273,428 (4.19%) votes at the 1982 Presidential election. Likewise the JVP’s Nandana Gunathilake  obtained  344,173 (4.08%) votes in the 1999 presidential election. Both  came third in those elections. Anura Kumara Dissanayake contesting as the NPP candidate in the 2020 presidential elections got 418,553 (3.16%) votes. Though the number of votes polled by Anura was higher than the votes polled by Rohana and Nandana, the percentage ratio was lower. Given the population increase over the years, Anura’s votes being more than the other two was understandable. But the percentage indicated an erosion of support for the JVP in NPP garb.
It was even worse in the Parliamentary elections of 2020. The  JVP led NPP “compass” was able to garner only 445,958 (3.84%) votes. This was less than the 543,944 (4.87%) votes the JVP got in 2015. 
  The MP tally too was halved. In 2015 the JVP got six with four elected  MPs and two on the national list. In 2020 the NPP got only three with two elected MPs and one on the national list. AK Dissanayake won in Colombo with 49,814 preferences. In 2015 AKD got 65,066 preferences. Vijitha Herath won in Gampaha with 37,008 preferences. The National list seat went to Dr. Harini Amarasuriya. 

Backlash in JVP  Against Anura

 The  JVP experiment of contesting as the NPP had not yielded the expected results. It appeared that whatever the  electoral strategy, the JVP  could not increase its vote share. Whether the JVP contested as the NPP or not,  the party could never transcend its third force status it seemed.  This state of affairs resulted in a mini-backlash against Anura Kumara Dissanayake within JVP folds. 
According to informed sources, an influential group  of stalwarts within the JVP led by  party secretary Tilvin Silva felt the NPP stratagem was a failure. They wanted the JVP to revert to its former status and not be tied down to the NPP. Although a number of persons had supported  the  suggestion of  setting up the NPP, the driving force behind the proposal had been Anura Kumara. Though a collective decision of the JVP, it was AKD who  was greatly responsible in steering it through. Hence, criticism of the NPP amounted to indirect criticism of AKD. 
To the credit of Anura Kumara Dissanayake, the leader did not back down in the face of the backlash. Instead of wilting under internal pressure, Anura stood his ground. He pointed out that the NPP was only a year old and  some more time was necessary to pass judgment on whether the strategic change  was a success or failure. He urged that they continue for some more time with the NPP. Anura also said that they had to promote the NPP concept in a bigger way in the future. AKD won the day. The JVP resolved to continue as the NPP. 
The prevailing situation was gloomy and dismal from an opposition point of view. Gotabaya Rajapaksa had been elected with a thumping majority. The Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP)  that won 146 seats in the poll had  acquired a two-thirds majority in the House by encouraging  opposition MPs to cross over. The Rajapaksas got the 20th Constitutional Amendment passed by Parliament thereby negating several positive  aspects of the 19th Amendment. The Rajapaksas and their sycophants were ruling the roost. 

Lack-lustre Opposition

 The presence of a lack-lustre opposition made it easier for the Rajapaksas. The United National Party (UNP) led by Ranil Wickremesinghe was wiped out at the 2020 election. The break-aways from the UNP had formed the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) under Sajith Premadasa’s leadership and garnered 54 seats. Sajith Premadasa became leader of the opposition. With MPs from the Tamil and Muslim parties being  concerned mainly with issues affecting their respective communities, there was a decline  in national focus. 
Sajith Premadasa hogged the parliamentary limelight. He spoke on almost every subject without   adequately delegating  speaking time  to other members of his party. Sajith’s speeches lacked clarity and depth. His speeches  contrasted sharply with those of his father. Ranasinghe Premadasa was a powerful orator who conveyed his thoughts effectively to his listeners. Sajith Premadasa on the other hand displayed an extensive vocabulary but his listeners were not impressed. 
In this situation the JVP/NPP trio of Anura, Harini and Vijitha made their mark in Parliament. Anura Kumara Dissanayake in particular excelled as an opposition parliamentarian. He spoke to the point without fanciful flourishes. He exposed the faults and foibles of the Govt.  Sajith may have been the de jure  leader of the opposition but it was Anura who seemed to be the de facto opposition leader. This reversal of roles was what Ranil Wickremesinghe referred to during the presidential election campaign when he mocked Sajith for  letting  Anura become the leading opposition force. (Ironically it was Sajith who defeated Ranil in 2020 and 2024). 

Emulating Basil Rajapaksa

The JVP led NPP also  started   emulating  Basil Rajapaksa. When Basil floated the SLPP, he did not focus on Parliament or the Provincial Councils. Instead he set up branches at grass root level in the local authorities. He selected prospective candidates and got them to cultivate their “constituencies”. Since changes in electoral laws provided for directly elected councillors from  divisional wards along with  additional councillors  elected on a proportional basis, Basil was able to get his candidates target their voters specifically. 
This approach enabled the newly formed SLPP to poll 5,006,837 (40.47%) votes in the 2018 local authority election. This entitled the SLPP to 3,265 ward councillors and  another 181 on PR. The SLPP in its  electoral baptism gained control of 126 local authorities throughout the  Island. The JVP on the other hand polled 710,932 (5.75%) votes in the 2018 local elections. The JVP could get only one member elected  directly from a ward. The party got 433 councillors on the PR basis. The JVP could not gain control of a single local authority in any part of the Island. 
The SLPP success at the 2018 local authority election was an inspiration to Anura. Local authority elections were due in 2022. The JVP led NPP decided to follow the SLPP approach. Party branches were re-structured to target wards at a divisional level. The focus became individual households. JVP-NPP activists would systematically visit every home and family. It was a parochial approach. Interestingly the JVP/NPP cadre would do their rounds on motor cycles and scooters. This in turn fuelled speculation about a foreign country being the source of funds to procure these two-wheelers. 
The Local authority elections were postponed by a year to 2023 .When D-day began drawing closer the JVP was ready, able and willing to contest most of the local authorities in the  seven Sinhala majority provinces and a few in the pre-dominantly Tamil speaking North and East. By this time Gotabaya Rajapaksa had been replaced by Ranil Wickremesinghe. The new president resorted to every trick in the book to prevent elections being held. 
The  NPP went to court seeking local elections. A Fundamental Rights petition was filed in the Supreme Court by Parliamentarian Dr. Harini Amarasuriya, former MP Sunil Hadunneththi and National Peoples Power (NPP) secretary Dr. Nihal Abeysinghe on March 14th 2023. The FR petition sought a court order directing relevant authorities to hold a free and fair Local Government election.  This showed that the  JVP led NPP had scented the sweet smell of electoral success then itself. The local authority polls were not held as scheduled. 

The ”Aragalaya” Experience

Meanwhile the country underwent the unprecedented experience of the “Aragalaya” (struggle). The NPP too tapped into the popular anger against the ruling regime in general and the Rajapaksas in particular. Anura gained more acceptance among the Galle Face protesters than Sajith.  Anura was welcomed while Sajith was chased away. However the JVP break-away  Frontline Socialist Party (FSP) took  over the Aragalaya and played the lead role. The JVP was overshadowed by the FSP. Ultimately Gotabaya resigned and Ranil became President. 
When Parliament voted to elect a new president, Anura too flung his hat into the ring despite the party having only three MPs. This again placed  Sajith Premadasa in a poor light as the opposition leader backed out of the contest and backed Dullas Alahapperuma instead.  Ranil was elected with 134 MPs supporting him. AKD got only three votes but politically he got better marks than Sajith. It was now clear that the  NPP leader Anura  was going to  assert  himself   as a serious  contender when the Presidential elections were to be held. Sajith  was perceived as weak and vacillating due to his indecisiveness and lack of political courage. So it was going to be a triangular tussle for the 2024 presidency. 

Ranil Wickremesinghe Presidency

Ranil Wickremesinghe  took over the presidency  when the country was facing an unprecedented economic crisis. Shortages were rampant amid an acute lack of foreign exchange. There were queues everywhere but supplies were unavailable or inadequate. Power and fuel shortages had virtually paralysed the country.  Whatever his faults, Ranil displayed courage and commitment in placing himself on the hot seat at a time of crisis. 
Furthermore Wickremesinghe was hampered by the fact that he had to depend on  Rajapaksa goodwill and SLPP support to function effectively as president. Since the UNP had only a single MP in Parliament,  Wickremesinghe had no option other than to discharge his duties with the aid of the Rajapaksa led “pohottuwa”party. Ranil however  perceived it as an occupational hazard that had to be faced in the long term interests of  Sri Lanka and her people. 
Ranil Wickremesinghe correctly recognized the economic crisis as a national problem. He called for a united national effort to combat the crisis. Ranil repeatedly  invited political parties represented in Parliament to join forces with him. He envisaged a collaborative exercise involving all parties. His  constant invitations were continually spurned.

Opportunity for Advancement

The SJB and NPP led by Sajith Premadasa and Anura Kumara Dissanayake saw an opportunity  for political advancement in the  economic crisis. Instead of cooperating with Wickremesinghe they preferred to stay aloof and criticise the president and his government. They even downplayed the enormous gravity of the economic crisis. Anura even “pooh pooh”ed Ranil saying the president was exaggerating  about the nature of the crisis. According to Anura it was a minor matter and not a major issue as Ranil was  portraying it to be.
The JVP led NPP also criticised the Wickremesinghe Govt for seeking the help of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The left in Sri Lanka has a history of antipathy towards the “Bretton Woods Twins”(World Bank and IMF). Now the JVP-NPP revived that hostility. It accurately pinpointed the  hardships the people especially the vulnerable sections of society would have to undergo due to IMF conditions. The JVP’s economic wizard Sunil Handunnethi even stated that they would  resolve the economic crisis  through donations from the Sri Lankan Diaspora instead of resorting to the IMF.
It soon became apparent that the SJB and JVP were not going to cooperate with Wickremesinghe’s Govt. Instead they were going to adopt a critical approach that would be constructive at best and nit-picking at worst. Every economic grievance of the people was  going to be exploited. Though Wickremesinghe had ensured availability, affordability was an acute problem for  most of the people. Cost of living was rising but salaries were not increasing. The rich were getting richer and poor getting poorer. The middle class was  dimishing.  

Aragalaya (Struggle)

Moreover  the Aragalaya (Struggle) had accomplished many things in addition to expediting the ouster of the Rajapaksas. It had demonstrated the success of people’s power   in general and youth power in particular. It had enhanced aversion towards nepotism and corruption It had also nurtured and nourished a fresh political culture clamouring for a change in the system or in the  existing order of things. 

Aiming for the Presidency

According to informed sources, the NPP  took stock of the changed equation and  commenced an analytical process. Anura Kumara Dissanayake played a pivotal role in this exercise. The JVP-NPP felt the situation   was ideal for political advancement by aiming for the presidency in a big way. Once again Anura was determined that the NPP should go it alone.  It was a foregone conclusion that AKD would be the  NPP presidential candidate. 
Thereafter the NPP geared itself up for the 2024 presidential election. There were some doubts as to whether President Wickremesinghe would hold the election on time. If so the NPP was prepared to launch a massive, island-wide political campaign demanding a presidential or Parliamentary  election. However, there was no need for any agitation as Ranil had always intended to conduct the election. And did so.  

Tale of Triumph

The JVP led NPP began to  assiduously promote Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s presidential candidacy. Anura  began  scenting the sweet smell of success in the presidential race and  projected  himself as the next president of Sri Lanka. This ‘dream” came true in September 2024. The  captivating tale of AKD’s triumph at the 2024 presidential election would be told next week  in detail in what would definitely be the final part of this extended article. 
D.B.S.Jeyaraj can be reached at [email protected]