India eyes stronger ties as Ajit Doval engages Sri Lanka’s political leaders before elections

As Sri Lanka approaches a crucial presidential election on September 21, India leaves no stone unturned in securing its strategic interests in the island nation. In what is seen as a calculated diplomatic move, India’s National Security Advisor (NSA), Ajit Doval, held talks with all four key presidential candidates during his recent visit to Colombo.

While Doval’s visit was primarily to attend the Colombo Security Conclave, his meetings with Sri Lanka’s political heavyweights underscore New Delhi’s efforts to ensure its relationship with Sri Lanka remains robust, irrespective of the election's outcome.

Given Sri Lanka's geostrategic importance and India’s concerns over growing Chinese influence in the region, Doval’s engagement with the candidates highlights India’s resolve to navigate any potential political shift. These meetings also come after India’s recent experiences with regime changes in neighbouring Bangladesh, reinforcing the need for New Delhi to stay prepared for any political transitions in its neighbourhood. Given the long-standing historical, cultural, and economic ties between the two nations, the outcome of this election will have far-reaching implications for India-Sri Lanka relations.

During his visit, Doval held a meeting with President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who is standing as an independent candidate in the upcoming election. He also held separate meetings with three other candidates: Sajith Premadasa of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the National People’s Power (NPP) alliance, and Namal Rajapaksa of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP).

Doval's visit first gained attention when he met with former Sri Lankan High Commissioner to India, Milinda Moragoda. Moragoda presented the Pathfinder Foundation’s Study Group Report on India-Sri Lanka's Physical Connectivity to Doval. This report offers a detailed blueprint for enhancing connectivity between the two nations in areas such as road, rail, electricity, and petroleum. The primary objective of this initiative is to elevate Sri Lanka’s annual economic growth rate from 3% to 6% through improved economic integration with India.

Following this, Doval met with President Ranil Wickremesinghe at the Presidential Secretariat. Their discussions focused on expanding economic cooperation, reinforcing defence ties, and exploring regional collaborations. This meeting is viewed as a significant moment in India-Sri Lanka relations as both nations aim to strengthen their strategic partnership amidst shared challenges in South Asia.

Under President Ranil Wickremesinghe's leadership, the India-Sri Lanka relationship has witnessed a renewed focus on strengthening economic and strategic ties. India has continued to play a pivotal role in Sri Lanka's recovery, especially after the island nation’s severe economic crisis in 2022. Wickremesinghe has sought to maintain a balance in foreign relations, ensuring Sri Lanka’s cooperation with India, particularly in the face of regional competition, notably China's growing influence in Sri Lanka.
The recent meeting between Doval and President Wickremesinghe at the Presidential Secretariat in Colombo highlights this evolving dynamic. The discussions focused on deepening economic cooperation, enhancing defence partnerships, and fostering broader regional collaboration. This comes at a time when both nations are navigating complex geopolitical landscapes, with India playing a crucial role in Sri Lanka’s economic recovery and debt restructuring efforts, including collaboration with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

In the meeting, Doval and Wickremesinghe underscored the importance of the strategic partnership, particularly in addressing common security challenges, such as maritime security in the Indian Ocean, countering terrorism, and strengthening cyber security frameworks. Both leaders expressed a commitment to expanding defence cooperation through joint military exercises and intelligence sharing. This is part of a broader strategy to maintain stability and security in South Asia, given the region's growing geopolitical tensions.

In addition, economic discussions centred on expanding trade and investment avenues, building on India’s extensive involvement in Sri Lanka’s development projects, including infrastructure, renewable energy, and industrial cooperation. The meeting reflected both nations' desire to bolster their partnership to foster long-term economic stability and regional security.

The meeting with Doval and Wickremesinghe coincided with the formal signing of the Colombo Security Conclave (CSC) Charter, which aims to address transnational threats in the region.

Colombo Security Conclave

As China’s influence and presence in the Indian Ocean region continue to expand, India has strategically sought to bolster its security cooperation with island and littoral nations through the Colombo Security Conclave (CSC). This ‘minilateral’ group includes India, Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Mauritius as full members, with Bangladesh and Seychelles participating as observers. The CSC represents one of the most active security-focused groupings in the Indian Ocean region.

The CSC, officially established in November 2020 following discussions among the National Security Advisors (NSAs) of India, Sri Lanka, and Maldives, focuses on enhancing maritime safety and security, counterterrorism, combating trafficking and organized crime, and cybersecurity. Since its inception, the CSC has become a crucial platform for regional cooperation, facilitating regular dialogues and joint exercises. For instance, the first Deputy NSA-level meeting of the CSC was held virtually in August 2021, with subsequent meetings focusing on practical cooperation in these areas.

In March 2022, the CSC expanded its scope to include five pillars of cooperation: maritime safety and security, counterterrorism and radicalization, combating trafficking and organized crime, cybersecurity and protection of critical infrastructure, and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. The group has conducted several joint exercises, such as maritime search and rescue operations, cybersecurity drills, and counter-terrorism investigations. Notably, Exercise Dosti XV in November 2021 demonstrated the CSC’s commitment to practical security cooperation.

Doval’s visit to Colombo from August 29–30, 2024, also coincided with significant developments in regional security. The CSC member states—Sri Lanka, India, Maldives, and Mauritius—signed the CSC Charter and a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) establishing the CSC Secretariat at the Presidential Secretariat. Indian NSA Ajit Doval, National Security Advisor of Maldives Ibrahim Latheef, High Commissioner of Mauritius to Sri Lanka Haymandoyal Dillum, and Senior Advisor to the President of Sri Lanka Sagala Ratnayaka signed the documents on behalf of their respective countries.

During the signing ceremony, Sagala Ratnayaka emphasized the evolving scope of national security, including internal challenges arising from technological advancements. He highlighted the need for governments to adopt practical approaches to address the negative effects of freedom of expression in the digital age while upholding it as a fundamental right.

"In a rapidly changing world with evolving threats, our efforts must focus on strengthening regional partnerships, sharing intelligence, and developing collaborative strategies," Ratnayaka said. He stressed the importance of addressing traditional security concerns while tackling new challenges like cyber security, transnational crime, and maritime security.

Reflecting on Sri Lanka’s recent economic crisis, Ratnayaka acknowledged the internal struggles that the country faced, noting, “Sri Lanka has a deeply ingrained social welfare system, but financing these programs became difficult, leading to unsustainable borrowing." This, he explained, contributed to the financial crisis, which fueled unrest and uprisings in the country.

He underscored that national security now extends beyond external threats to managing the impacts of technological advancements, including balancing freedom of expression in the digital age.

Doval’s Meetings with Opposition Leaders

Ajit Doval also engaged in separate discussions with key opposition leaders, including Sajith Premadasa, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, and Namal Rajapaksa.

Sajith Premadasa, leader of the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) and a presidential candidate, discussed India-Sri Lanka political ties and how India could assist Sri Lanka in stabilizing its economy, boosting trade, and strengthening diplomatic relations. Premadasa, a seasoned politician, also expressed his concerns about Sri Lanka's future direction and India’s potential role in ensuring regional stability. The discussions likely touched on collaborations in sectors like health, education, and trade, where India has already been a strong partner to Sri Lanka.

Anura Kumara Dissanayake, leader of the National People’s Power (NPP), met with Doval to discuss political and economic issues, including maintaining sovereignty while engaging in foreign partnerships. Dissanayake, representing a left-leaning, anti-corruption platform, likely raised concerns about external influences on Sri Lanka’s political landscape. The meeting also focused on broader regional cooperation and how Sri Lanka can maintain balanced diplomatic relations with key allies like India.

Doval also engaged with leaders of Tamil political parties, including M.A. Sumanthiran of the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi and Selvarajah Kajendren of the Tamil National People’s Front. Discussions revolved around potential collaboration and addressing internal divisions within Tamil parties, emphasizing the importance of unity in national politics.

These meetings are significant, especially as India seeks to foster stable relations in Sri Lanka ahead of its Presidential elections. Doval's outreach to both the government and opposition leaders demonstrates India's strategic interest in ensuring that whoever takes power in Sri Lanka continues to support and deepen bilateral relations. 

India’s connectivity vision for Sri Lanka and controversies

The India-Sri Lanka relationship has long been characterized by deep cultural, religious, and linguistic ties, along with a growing collaboration in trade, investment, and defence. Over the years, India has emerged as one of Sri Lanka's key development partners, committing more than $3.5 billion, including $570 million in grants, to projects that span education, health, housing, and industrial development. When Sri Lanka faced an unprecedented economic crisis in 2022, India extended $4 billion in aid and played a critical role in collaborating with international organizations, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), to help the country restructure its debt.

India’s connectivity vision for Sri Lanka is central to its broader strategy to enhance regional integration, economic cooperation, and security in South Asia. India is involved in multiple infrastructure projects across Sri Lanka, focusing on improving maritime, rail, and renewable energy sectors. Notable projects include the development of Trincomalee as a strategic hub, expanding the Kankasanthurai Port, and advancing both the Jaffna Airport and Colombo Airport.

India is also implementing hybrid power projects in three islands off Jaffna—Delft, Nainativu, and Analaitivu. These projects, combining solar and wind energy, aim to address energy needs in regions not connected to the national grid. Initial work has already begun, and the project is set for completion by March 2025.

Despite these collaborative efforts, several India-funded projects have faced controversy. Opposition from local political groups, trade unions, and communities has complicated some initiatives, particularly in sensitive regions and the northern areas with Tamil-majority populations. 

Concerns have been raised about foreign involvement in critical infrastructure and the potential impact on Sri Lanka's sovereignty, especially in light of the geopolitical competition between India and China. 

India's growing footprint in Sri Lanka's infrastructure is seen by some as a counter to China's influence, especially in strategically important areas like Hambantota Port and other key development projects. 

India’s proactive engagement with Sri Lanka’s political leaders ahead of the crucial presidential election underscores its strategic intent to maintain and strengthen its relationship with the island nation. Through high-level discussions with both the current administration and key opposition figures, India is positioning itself to safeguard its interests in the face of growing regional competition, particularly from China. The focus on expanding economic cooperation, enhancing defence ties, and advancing regional security through platforms like the Colombo Security Conclave illustrates India’s comprehensive approach to ensuring stability and fostering deeper integration in South Asia.