Indo-Lanka ties intact, tightrope walk ahead for Sino-Lanka ties

President Dissanayake’s state visit to India can be viewed as reaffirmation of the already existing blueprint for furtherance of bilateral relations

In the overall context, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s state visit to India can be viewed as reaffirmation of the already existing blueprint for furtherance of bilateral relations. Once again, the importance of Sri Lanka’s geostrategic resonates as India reiterates that Sri Lanka occupies central place in its   ‘Neighbourhood First Policy’ and vision of ‘SAGAR’ (Security and Growth for All in the Region).

The joint statement issued in the wake of bilateral discussions between President Dissanayake and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi envisages nothing but what was agreed upon during the visit of then President  Ranil Wickremesinghe.

In fact, some of the concepts, outlined this time and last time,   had been conceived a long time ago.  For example, power grid connectivity is an idea that has remained at the conceptual level for a long time. Afterwards, during the time of former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, then Sri Lanka’s High Commissioner to India Milinda Moragoda presented a report on the way forward for bilateral relations, and in it, he discussed the proposals for connectivity of two power grids and the establishment of a multi-product petroleum pipeline connecting the two countries. These concepts crept into a joint statement for the first time after the visit of President Wickremesinghe.

Likewise, the development of Trincomalee as an energy hub along with the modernization of the oil tank farm is not a project that sprung up out of the blue and made its way to the joint statement. First, it was discussed publicly when Prime Minister Modi visited Sri Lanka soon after the Yahapalana government was formed in 2015. In his address to Sri Lanka Parliament, he mentioned this idea and the authorities of the two countries took some steps in this direction afterwards.  

What is envisaged in the current joint statement is a virtual reflection of the same agreed upon on multiple occasions in the past. The irony is that the leaders of the ruling National People’s Power (NPP) who were critical of these projects then in the opposition have now committed to proceed with them, at least in principle. The opposition parties have now picked up points from the joint statement to take on the government and its leaders over their past political utterances critical of projects involving India, including the Economic and Technology Cooperation Agreement (ETCA). ETCA negotiations have been going on for a long time.

Nevertheless, in a closer look at the joint statement, it is difficult to conclude that President Dissanayake has fully committed to all these projects.  He has agreed to proceed with negotiations on ETCA, for example. Otherwise, it is not a commitment to conclude the signing of ETCA according to a timeline for liberalization of trade and investments between the two countries. Similarly, discussions will continue on other major projects proposed between the two sides. No time bound action plan is outlined. It is impractical to do so, though.  

Also, compared to the last joint statement, certain projects have been left out this time. Notable among them is that there is no mention of the land connectivity project this time, probably because Sri Lanka sees it not as a priority project at this juncture.  At the same time, Sri Lanka has not committed to the implementation of the 13th Amendment in the joint statement.

It has been the stated position of India for decades. Prime Minister Modi discussed it this time and remarked about it publicly during the visit. Yet, it is not included in the joint statement.   What is outlined in the joint statement on the resolution of the fisheries issue between India and Sri Lanka is also the same.

The 13th Amendment to the Constitution is a piece of constitutional legislation conceived and enacted in a different context. Now, the political landscape has changed in Sri Lanka with the NPP having a mandate from across the country. The new government must be thinking that any approach to the resolution of minority rights should be aligned with the new mandate. The NPP received a mandate both at the Presidential and Parliamentary elections even without a single mention of the implementation of the 13th Amendment.  The party even won the Jaffna district, and it leaves scope for interpretation that Tamil people in the North no longer cling to their demand for power devolution or sharing as the sole political plank.

With the conclusion of the visit, what became apparent was that the government had to make the tightrope walk in reconciling competing interests between India and China.  India is nervous about the berthing of Chinese research vessels in Sri Lanka ports. Following India’s protest, Sri Lanka even imposed a moratorium on foreign research vessels for a one year period which will end soon.   The then Sri Lankan government led by Mr. Wickremesinghe did it to allay India’s concerns. It compromised Sino-Lanka goodwill, though.

During the President’s visit, India raised concerns about it once again. Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, in his remarks to the press after bilateral discussions between the leaders of the two countries, said India pointed to importance and sensitivity of this matter.

“With regard to the issue related to the birthing of research vessels, etc., our understanding is that the Sri Lankan government is looking at this issue. There are a number of considerations that they need to take into account. We did highlight from our perspective the role that India could play in a number of activities related to Maritime Security, Maritime Research, etc.,” he said.

“President Dissanayake has been upfront in saying that his government will not allow Sri Lankan territory to be used for anything inimical to the security interests of India.

As I mentioned in my earlier remarks as well, we pointed to the importance and the sensitivity of our security interests in this area. President Dissanayake was very upfront in saying that he would ensure that nothing was done by using Sri Lankan territory that might impact India’s security. So, we will continue to engage with the government of Sri Lanka on all these issues and we are confident that issues of importance such as these will continue to be given due care by the government of Sri Lanka,” he said in response to a question by a journalist.

China deeply perturbed

However, China is deeply perturbed over Sri Lanka placing restrictions on its research vessels merely because of India’s concerns. Beijing maintains the need for cooperation in maritime research activities between the two countries.  The President will be off to China next month, and the new government is under compulsion to settle in a manner that is acceptable to both sides.  China is affirmative that its research vessels do not pose any security threat to another country.

Restricting Chinese vessels risks jeopardizing ties with Beijing, possibly impacting future financial support and investments. On the other hand, disregarding India’s security concerns could strain relations with a crucial neighbor, risking regional goodwill and strategic support.

President Dissanayake’s assurance to India reflects an attempt to placate New Delhi. However, with his upcoming visit to China, he will need to navigate Beijing’s expectations carefully without compromising ties with any of these two countries.  It is natural for Sri Lanka to have special relations with India given its geographical proximity, civilizational linkages and economic relevance.  Beijing will understand it, for sure.