Iran and Israel: From Allies to brink of major conflict

At one point, Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin even referred to Iran as one  of Israel’s “best friends.” However, sentiments shifted rapidly, and  Rabin later characterized Ayatollah Khomeini’s regime as “dark” and  “murderous.”

Global oil and gold prices surged, while stock markets plummeted, in the wake of reports that Israel had launched missiles at several sites in Iran.
Iran and Israel were once close allies during the reign of the Shah, as they shared common geopolitical interests and concerns regarding Arab nationalism. However, with the establishment of the Islamic Republic following the 1979 Islamic Revolution and Ayatollah Khomeini’s rise to power,Khomeini severed diplomatic ties with Israel and adopted a firm anti-Zionist stance.

Israel carried out an airstrike on Iran early Friday morning, following new sanctions imposed by the United States and its European allies. Iranian state TV reported that three drones were shot down over the Isfahan air base. President Joe Biden and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced the sanctions, emphasizing their commitment to Israel’s security. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated Israel’s resolve to defend itself and make independent decisions regarding military actions against Iran.

The rupture in Iran-Israel relations led to a fundamental realignment of alliances in the region, with Iran becoming a key supporter of anti-Israeli groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Palestinian territories. This shift reshaped the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, contributing to ongoing tensions and conflicts in the region. Khomeini’s hostility toward Israel stemmed from several factors. Firstly, he perceived Israel as a tool of American imperialism, aligned with the Shah’s regime and viewed as an obstacle to the spread of Islamic revolution in the Middle East. Secondly, Khomeini, a prominent Shia cleric, was sympathetic to the Palestinian cause and condemned Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories, framing it as an injustice against Muslims. Israel’s perception of Iran as a strategic threat didn’t fully materialize until the 1990s. 

Best friends

At one point, Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin even referred to Iran as one of Israel’s “best friends.” However, sentiments shifted rapidly, and Rabin later characterized Ayatollah Khomeini’s regime as “dark” and “murderous.”
Iran’s recent unprecedented strike on Israel, involving over 350 drones and missiles, has heightened tensions further. Despite warnings from President Biden, it seems that Prime Minister Netanyahu has decided to retaliate against Iran at a time and in a manner deemed appropriate by Israel. In the early hours of Friday morning, Israel launched what appeared to be a retaliatory strike on Iran, with several drones targeting the Isfahan air base.

As tensions rise, the global community watches with concern aware of the growing risk of a full-scale conflict in the region. Iran’s actions, such as allocating the Israeli embassy in Tehran to the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) and instituting Quds Day, demonstrate its commitment to mobilizing Muslims against Israel and its perceived control of Jerusalem. These symbolic gestures highlight Iran’s steadfast support for the Palestinian cause and its quest for independence. 

Iran’s backing of anti-Israeli groups like Hezbollah and Hamas intensified, reflecting Tehran’s strategy of projecting influence in the region through proxy warfare. By supporting these groups, Iran aimed to dent Israel’s security interests and exert influence in regional conflicts while avoiding direct confrontation. Despite the political hostility between Iran and Israel, pragmatic considerations sometimes led to contradictory situations. Meanwhile, Iran was assembling a network of proxy forces along Israel’s borders, establishing a significant precedent for what would evolve into a prolonged shadow conflict.

Crucial role

Iran played a crucial role in the evolution of Hezbollah, a Shia Lebanese militant group, from its early days in the 1980s to its current status as a tough military force. Hezbollah fighters frequently travelled to Iran for training, and Tehran is said to have provided substantial financial support and weaponry to the group. A US State Department report indicated that in 2020 alone, the support amounted to approximately $700 million in cash and weapons.

Following the conclusion of the first intifada[uprising] in 1993, Iran and Hezbollah extended their support to emerging militant groups such as Hamas. They provided training and assistance, imparting tactics including the construction and use of suicide bombs, which were later deployed with devastating effect during the second intifada [2000-2005].  While Israel is widely believed to have possessed nuclear weapons since the late 1960s, it has maintained a policy of vagueness, neither confirming nor denying their existence. Iran’s nuclear ambitions became a focal point of concern in the early 2000s when various Iranian dissident groups disclosed the existence of uranium enrichment sites and heavy-water production facilities. While these facilities could be used for civilian purposes such as power generation, their potential for military applications raised suspicions internationally.

Further alarm arose with the revelation of a second secret underground uranium enrichment facility, disclosed by the US administration. These developments intensified global scrutiny of Iran’s nuclear program and fueled concerns about its intentions. The suspected involvement of Mossad agents in a series of attacks on Iranian nuclear scientists during the early 2010s highlighted Israel’s perception of Iran’s nuclear program as an existential threat. Over just two years, five prominent physicists were killed either by gunfire or in car bomb explosions. Additionally, Israel reportedly developed a sophisticated computer worm, believed to be the Stuxnet virus, which successfully disrupted centrifuges at one of Iran’s improvement facilities. In retribution, Iran targeted several Israeli embassies abroad with car bombs, mounting tensions between the two countries.

West’s nuclear deal 

However, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu strongly criticized the West’s nuclear deal with Iran, arguing that it provided Iran with significant sanctions relief, which he believed fueled Iran’s aggression. In 2018, President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the agreement, citing concerns about its failure to address Iran’s missile program and regional influence. Subsequently, Iran began disregarding the restrictions placed on its nuclear program. During this period, Israel reportedly continued targeting high-ranking Iranian officials. For instance, the United States assassination of Iranian military commander Qassim Soleimani in January 2020 was alleged to have been aided by Israeli intelligence. Later that year, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Iran’s top nuclear scientist, was killed by a remote-controlled gun.

In 2022, several incidents occurred where officers affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including two colonels, were killed. Following a brutal assault by Hamas on Israel in October 2022, resulting in approximately 1,200 deaths, Israel reportedly conducted numerous strikes in Syria targeting senior Iranian commanders and officials, including the IRGC’s intelligence chief in the country. Recent reports suggest that Israel may have been behind the bombing of Tehran’s embassy in Damascus, resulting in the deaths of seven Iranians, including Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior IRGC commander.

The impact of an Israel-Iran war on Sri Lanka would likely be indirect but significant. It could affect the country’s economy, particularly through disruptions in global trade and energy markets, potentially impacting energy costs and trade relationships. Additionally, Sri Lanka’s tourism industry may suffer if regional instability deters tourists. Diplomatically, Sri Lanka would need to carefully manage its relationships with Israel, Iran, and other involved parties to avoid being drawn into the conflict or facing repercussions. Furthermore, it’s worth noting that Iranian President’s planned visit to open the Uma Oya project could face diplomatic implications due to the conflict.

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