Is ‘Aragalaya’ dying? - EDITORIAL

Has the ‘Aragalaya’ died or is it rising from the ashes? Protests in the country are springing up by the day in one part of the country or the other. Since government’s defaulted debt payment in May this year, it has been unable to import necessities like fuel. Inflation has spiked, with food inflation rising to around 90% and near daily power cuts.

Latest statistics published by the Office for the Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) of the United Nations, at least 5.7 million persons or 26% of our population requires humanitarian assistance, in the field of food, health and livelihood. Over 26% of our children are suffering from malnutrition. Access to health-care, including hospital and maternity care have been disrupted.

There is a serious drop in agricultural production due to unsuccessful attempts in  transition to organic farming from agro-chemical based cultivation. In turn it led to food shortages leading to the current spike in malnutrition in 
the country.

Though limited fuel and foodstuffs are now available, costs are way beyond the reach of around 80% or more of the populace. Again, there has been little change in the ruling circles which brought about the collapse of the country’s economy. Charges of government corruption even in these days of economic crisis abound, with no apparent effort being made to rein it in.

The spike in protests is therefore hardly surprising, yet a means is needed to help the country wriggle out of a debt trap of our own making. One of the possibilities is seeking an IMF (International Monetary Fund) debt restructuring facility to help us repay our mind-boggling debt of approximately US$$56,341,952,150.
According to ‘statistics.com’ in September 2022, the public debt of the United States was around US$30.9 trillion around US$2.5 trillion more than a year earlier, when it was around US$28.43 trillion.
So what makes the US debt - which makes our own debt pale into insignificance- different from ours?

Firstly, the US debt is in its own currency. Our debt is not in our own currency. Ours is in dollars. We have therefore to earn the US$ to repay our debt. To earn dollars we have to export goods. In other words, we have to produce goods the US and European markets demand. Not what we need. The emphasis therefore on promoting primary goods and raw materials for export to countries in Europe and the US, rather than achieving self-sufficiency.
Both the World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) promote this model of development. Emphasis is laid on export. 

The promotion of this export model for indebted countries to meet US and European needs, leads to an oversupply of exported goods from developing countries (now referred to as middle and/or low income countries). This (oversupply) helps keep prices down. 

At the same time, developing countries need to purchase their own needs in food, medicines etc., from the US and the European countries paid in dollars. Unfortunately for us in Sri Lanka and other countries striving to break out of debt traps, there aren’t any other institutionalized structures - other than the World Bank and the IMF- they can readily reach out to in times of distress. 
Stuck with the need to overcome our present financial crisis, the IMF facility under consideration offers a temporary respite to our debt problem. But it offers no solution to the continuing rise in the cost of living crisis.

In the face of increasing difficulties, the ‘Aragalaya’ cannot be expected to die a natural death. We are once again witnessing isolated protests in different parts of the country. On the islands off Mannar, citizens are protesting the wind turbine projects they say will adversely affect the environment of the islands. In fishing villages, people are protesting the shortage of fuel to put their fishing craft out to sea. Fisher families in the north and east are protesting the invasion of huge Indian trawlers into Lankan sea-space. Farmers across the country are protesting the shortage of fuel and other agricultural inputs.

No, the ‘Aragalaya’ is not dead, it has taken a different form. 
Our leaders need to take an example from the actions of India, China and Russia to trade in their currencies. It’s time to seek out of the box solutions, recognize friend from foe and seek new friends.
The Asia region is on the rise. We need to seek friends who are closer home and break the old dependency syndrome.