Lanka on the horns of dilemma

It was the winds and waves of misguided economic planning, mega corruption, and foreign indebtedness which put Lanka into an economic crisis. Today, just as it appears that we could be seeing the light at the end of that tunnel, our foreign office mandarins have created a new problem which could have geopolitical ramifications.

The world today is polarized. The US and its NATO allies are in confrontation with Russia in Europe. In the Asian region, the US and its allies in the QUAD grouping (a network of four countries – the US, Australia, Japan and India - whose aim is maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific), are attempting to corner China, which is challenging the US leadership in the region. 

During the past week, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan against the express wishes of China, which claims the island as part of its territory. Taiwan is not recognized by the UN as an independent state and the ‘incident’ led to a virtual air and sea Chinese blockade of the island. 

In the midst of these international games of power politics, Sri Lanka, suddenly found itself dragged into a geopolitical struggle between two Asian giants (India and China) on the one hand, and two world power blocs on the other.

Without any foresight, members of our foreign service gave permission for a Chinese ocean survey ship -”Yuang Wang 5”- to dock and refuel at the Chinese-controlled port at Hambantota. The move raised heckles in India, which views with suspicion any foreign power activity in what it considers in its backyard. 

India raised security concerns over what it claimed was the docking of a Chinese ‘spy-ship’ at Hambantota and the ramifications the move posed to its (India’s) security. To help get us out of our economic crisis, our country has benefitted from a massive injection of aid from India in the form of fuel, cooking gas as well as shipments of rice to feed our population.

Between January and April, India has extended assistance of about US$2.5 billion to Sri Lanka, including credit facilities for fuel and food. Between March and April over 270,000 metric tonnes of diesel and petrol were supplied. During the same period, India had also supplied approximately 40,000 metric tonnes of rice through credit facility.
Prior to the worst economic crisis hitting the nation, China had provided Sri Lanka with infrastructural loans amounting to around US$3.5 billion, part of which were due for repayment. Not having dollars to repay, the port was leased to China. More recently, however, China has shown reluctance to continue extending lines of credit - possibly because China itself is facing its own economic woes.

With India playing a major role to help Lanka out of its present foreign exchange crunch and debt crisis, the government had no option, but to request the Chinese government to postpone the Yuang Wang 5’s visit. 
The move undoubtedly angered China which is smarting at the visit of the US House Speaker to Taiwan despite its protestations. China may well view the Lankan withdrawal of permission for the ‘Yang Wang 5’ to berth at its harbour at Hambantota, as support for the US and its anti-China propaganda.

Whatever the thinking behind the foreign office authorities permitting the docking of the Chinese vessel, both India and China have been among our country’s best friends. We need the continued support of both countries to get out of current difficulties.

Our economic development needs the goodwill of Chinese trade to get out of the present US$ shortage. At the same time we need India’s economic intervention to provide a semblance of political stability, if we are to receive an IMF debt restructuring facility.

So how do we wriggle out of this imbroglio? Does India really have to be worried about the presence of a Chinese ‘spy-ship’? The recent assassination of al-Qaeda leader (al-Jawahri) by the US, via a drone strike operated by an operator based in Washington, using satellite technology to take out a single target has shown the old concept of ‘spy-ships’ etc., are now irrelevant. China has sufficient satellites covering the globe, if it needs to take a peek into India’s security set up in the south of that country. But who’s going to convince India of that?

To get Sri Lanka out of the present pickle created by our foreign ministry, without worsening the unwelcome consequences of the diplomatic bungling is going to challenge our president’s political and diplomatic acumen.

We can only remain hopeful that his experience as an international leader and accumulated diplomatic skills, would help steer the Sri Lankan ship unscathed, through troubled geopolitical waters.