Lockdowns, of no use if not strictly monitored

Is Sri Lanka making any headway in its fight against the COVID pandemic? From what we can gather from media reports, it is only too apparent that the fight has lost it momentum or the thrust we experienced at the initial stages.

We are into the middle of the latest lockdown imposed on August 20 and now extended until September 6. A question that most people ask is whether the current lockdown -- listless at most times, lackadaisical at others and reluctantly imposed on the request of medical officers, Opposition political parties, the clergy and civil society activists -- has served the expected purpose of curbing or containing the fast-spreading and fast-mutating viral infection. It is commonly believed that the entire exercise has been a waste of time and effort considering the alarming number of COVID-infected patients and COVID-related deaths being reported daily. The government must not lose sight of the fact that if nothing else, the precious human lives we are losing in increasing numbers – now surging past the 8,175 mark -- are those of our mothers, fathers, brothers, sisters, sons and daughters and tell its own dreadful, disheartening and depressing story.

The visuals we see on the electronic and print media show people on foot and in vehicles moving around in large numbers, ignoring health guidelines making it that much harder and of little or no use in containing the pandemic. While many socially responsible people are known to strictly observe the lockdown regulations, many others are taking it easy while disregarding the guidelines recommended by the health authorities. In such a scenario, it is not a surprise to hear of the number of COVID-infected patients and deaths continuing to rise?

Meanwhile, at its 6th Independent Technical Expert Group Meeting on August 26 with reference to the COVID-19 situation in Sri Lanka and the way forward, a WHO-facilitated group comprising Sri Lankan medical professionals has recommended the extension of the current lockdown to October 2 or at least until September 18, which if implemented, would save thousands of lives from the deadly COVID-19 viral infection.

The group believes that by extending lockdowns beyond August 31 would help save COVID-19-related deaths –nearly 7,500 if extended up to September 18 and 10,000 if extended up to October 2.

The WHO-facilitated group has recommended a four to six-week lockdown so as to break the cycle of infections and that by doing so, the vaccination drive could be completed for effective protection of the people especially in the context of the rapid spread of the Delta variant, while the healthcare system would have some time “to recover from extreme pressure including shortage of beds and critical supplies such as oxygen”.

The group with Dr. Palitha Abeykoon, an eminent specialist and WHO consultant, as facilitator and comprising some of Sri Lanka’s most eminent doctors and medical specialists, said by examining the current situation, it has been found that close to 90% of the samples sequenced show the Delta variant, which is highly transmissible with a shorter incubation period, has now spread to other provinces as well. 

“Hospitals are at full capacity with an increasing number of health workers getting infected. Critical supplies including oxygen are low in stock and the virus is spreading within homes,” the group warned and as an urgent response, it recommended the enforcement of stringent measures with compliance of the public to reinforce accelerated vaccination with a social support system for the vulnerable population.

The group quoted an economic projection model developed by Imperial College as saying that a four-week lockdown followed by gradual relaxation would cost the economy US$1.67 billion, while in the case of a six-week lockdown, the economic impact would be US$2.2 billion.

It said the current classification of Sri Lanka is ‘red’ which adversely affects tourism. ‘Green’ status (UK) requires daily cases less than 950 and test-positivity rate of less than 2.5%.

“Extending the stringency measures would reverse the current trajectory and move Sri Lanka towards ‘amber’ and achieving ‘green’ status by the end of the year,” the report said, adding that overall, global and local evidence indicates that economies bounce back quickly once stringencies are removed.

Where has the government gone wrong? The government needs to be humble enough to carry out re-evaluation process based on the advice obtained from medical experts, devoid of political agendas, for the greater good of the people, so that proactive course corrections could be introduced especially when anti-COVID operations seem to falter, stumble or waver.