Namal’s Entry Changes Political Dynamics of Presidential Poll

The SLPP decision to field a candidate of their own confirmed the Ranil -SLPP divide further

• The false narrative about Ranil’s relationship with the Rajapaksas has now been demolished by recent events
• Despite this perceived dependence on the Rajapaksa-led SLPP, President Wickremesinghe has always been his own man
• Hence the challenge facing Namal Rajapaksa is a peculiar one. His is not to win the presidency though he would love to do so
• Namal genuinely believes that the SLPP must contest the 2024 presidential poll if the party is to remain as a powerful political force

From the time Ranil  Wickremesinghe returned to the seat of  power as Prime Minister  and later as President, false narratives have been concocted and circulated by his opponents, adversaries, critics and detractors about him. One was that Wickremesinghe was afraid to face a presidential election and that he would put off the poll through unorthodox measures. 

This falsehood was exposed when the date of the presidential poll was gazetted by the Election Commission. Wickremesinghe was the first to pay his election deposit as an independent candidate. Unable to confront this reality,Ranil’s foes now comfort themselves saying “wait and see will you, he will do something before the election”. 

Another and comparatively more effective false narrative was about the Ranil -Rajapaksa relationship. It is certainly true that Ranil was first appointed Prime Minister and then acting president by President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. After Gota resigned, Ranil  was elected president by 134 of 225 MPs. The majority of these MPs were from the Rajapaksa-led Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). Ranil’s Cabinet  consists of a very large number of SLPP parliamentarians. The  budgets and other legislation presented by the Wickremesinghe Government were  passed by Parliament mainly due to support extended by Pohottuwa MPs. 

Despite this perceived dependence on the Rajapaksa-led SLPP, President Wickremesinghe has always been his own man. While maintaining cordial relations with the Rajapaksas and accommodating a few of their requests, Ranil remained  firmly independent of them. 

Wickremesinghe has in tandem with the Central Bank, chartered an economic policy independent of the Rajapaksas. Many of Wickremesinghe’s economic measures are not to the liking of the Rajapaksas but they have gone along reluctantly. This is because the Rajapaksas needed Ranil as much as he needed  them. The dependence is not one-sided but mutual inter-dependence.

“Ranil Rajapaksa”
In spite of this Ranil’s  detractors have continued to assail him as a Rajapaksa creature, puppet or stooge. The coining of the witty phrase “Ranil Rajapaksa” by an opposition  MP caught on and many kept  parroting it ad nauseam. 

The political myth  that Wickremesinghe is aligned to or tied up with the Rajapaksas has been a powerful instrument in the hands of Sajith Premadasa to retain many of his MPs within SJB folds. This falsely projected Ranil-Rajapaksa link is one of the two main reasons obstructing several SJB parliamentarians from re-uniting with the UNP their mother party. They were told Ranil was going to be the SLPP sponsored  presidential candidate. 
The second reason for some SJB MPs hesitating to re-unite with their mother party the United National Party (UNP) is the private circulation of a mysterious opinion poll which predicts a landslide victory for Sajith Premadasa at the 2024 Presidential poll. 

The false narrative about Ranil’s relationship with the Rajapaksas has now been demolished by recent events.  As related in detail by this column last week, the SLPP Politburo resolved  not to support  Ranil Wickremesinghe’s  Presidential candidacy. 

The SLPP decision to field a candidate of their own confirmed the Ranil -SLPP divide further. A lengthy campaign of lies and falsehoods was dramatically demolished. Nevertheless there were anti-Ranil elements who could not digest this. So these sections kept  on chanting that this  was all a drama and that the Rajapaksas and Ranil would re-align very soon. 

SLPP Candidate
This canard too has now been negated by ground realities. As stated in my article last week, the SLPP’s official decision not to support Wickremesinghe and to field a party candidate has drastically impacted the “Pohottuwa”. More than a hundred SLPP parliamentarians including ministers and state ministers have openly pledged their support for Ranil defying party diktat. Furthermore several district committees of the SLPP have expressed support for Wickremesinghe. 

The situation has been further compounded by the announcement of the SLPP’s presidential candidate. Although casino owner cum business tycoon Dhammika Perera was to be the SLPP candidate, he backed out at the eleventh hour citing personal reasons. Thereafter Mahinda Rajapaksa’s eldest son and Hambantota district MP Namal Rajapaksa was nominated formally by the SLPP as the party’s presidential candidate. 

With the entry of Namal Rajapaksa, the political dynamics of the 2024 Presidential hustings is beginning to change.  When President Wickremesinghe met with Editors and senior media personnel recently a number of questions were put to him. The ”Thamilan” newspaper Editor R. Sivarajah raised the following question. 

Q: Dhammika Perera has withdrawn from the Presidential race and Namal Rajapaksa has been nominated as the Presidential candidate. With most SLPP supporters backing you, do you expect a strong challenge from Namal Rajapaksa?
President Ranil Wickremesinghe pondered a while and responded as follows -

“I cannot predict the nature of the competition. My goal is not to engage in a fight but to present my policies to the people and demonstrate how we can advance the country. If you agree with my vision, you can vote for me. I am not concerned with what others say. If he wishes to come, I have no objection. In fact, he should clearly convey his message.”

“Namal Rajapaksa and the SLPP supported me in the Parliamentary election for the Presidency, and I am grateful for that. We had agreed to work together over the past two years, and that period has now passed.”

 “It is now up to him to determine the party’s position on supporting or nominating a candidate. It is his responsibility to present his proposals to the country.” 

 “This is not my personal contest. It is up to the people to decide their future. They can choose to support my programme and vote accordingly, or opt for another candidate.”

Friendly Contradictions
Although President  Wickremesinghe’s answer may seem evasive, it does reflect the kernel of his political philosophy in accepting the presidency in 2022 and facing the economic crisis challenge thereafter. From Ranil’s perspective the differences with the SLPP are friendly or lesser contradictions. They are not acute or major contradictions. 

Ranil’s presidency during the past two years was in reality a partnership with the SLPP. It was in the SLPP’s interests to be supportive of Wickremesinghe and bask in reflected glory instead of adopting a confrontational course with him. Ranil in his response is implicitly admonishing Namal for what he thinks is a mistake but deftly refrains from expressing open criticism. 

What is at stake however is different for the SLPP in general and Namal Rajapaksa in particular. Hell hath no fury as a Rajapaksa scorned! The Rajapaksas especially Basil and Namal are irritated with Ranil because he did not comply with some of their demands such as having the Parliamentary poll first,  contesting as the SLPP’s presidential candidate,  replacing Dinesh Gunawardene with Namal Rajapaksa as Prime Minister and promising to allocate the lion’s share of portfolios to the pohottuwa in a future Govt. 

From being annoyed the Rajapaksas became angry with Ranil when they were faced with a fresh reality vis a vis the president. The majority of SLPP parliamentarians including ministers and state ministers threw in their lot with Wickremesinghe in defiance of the SLPP hierarchy. 

Unenviable Situation
Now  many district councils of the SLPP party apparatus are also endorsing Ranil. The Rajapaksas are in an unenviable situation where they retain only structural authority within the party they founded. Functional authority is being severely eroded  as a substantial portion of party membership is going over to Ranil’s side.

Hence the challenge facing Namal Rajapaksa is a peculiar one. His is not to win the presidency though he would love to do so. Namal’s objective is to demonstrate that it is the family-led SLPP which has more popularity among the people and not those MPs who have “renegaded” into becoming Ranil supporters. 

Therefore the votes mobilised by the SLPP breakaways and rebels on behalf of Wickremesingh should be much less than the votes polled by the Lotus bud. This could result in Wickremesinghe losing but the Rajapaksas do not seem to be concerned. Ranil losing is more important than even Namal winning.

“Sajith Rajapaksa”
Interestingly enough this antipathy towards Wickremesinghe is now common to both Namal Rajapaksa as well as Sajith Premadasa. The two sons of two former Premiers  cum presidents would revel in Ranil’s defeat even more than their own successes. There is a convergence of interests between Sajith and Namal in this respect though there is no identity of interests. It is in this context that the new phrase “Sajith Rajapaksa” is gaining currency. 

There is an ongoing campaign  about a political “understanding” between Sajith Premadasa and Namal Rajapaksa. Just as Wickremesinghe was referred to  as “Ranil Rajapaksa”, Premadasa is being  referred to as “Sajith Rajapaksa”. The whole campaign appears to be an innovation by the pro-Ranil propaganda apparatus. 
When US President John F. Kennedy was assassinated radical black leader Malcolm X famously remarked ‘the chickens have come home to roost”. One is reminded of that saying in the current context where the false narrative constructed against Ranil by opposition leaders is now boomeranging on them.  “Ranil Rajapaksa” wanes and “Sajith Rajapaksa” waxes. It appears that  sauce for the Wickremesinghe goose is now sauce for the Premadasa gander too.

Dhammika  Perera
As is well known the SLPP’s presidential candidate was going to be business magnate Dhammika Perera. From the time the Rajapaksas  got cheesed off with Ranil, it was Dhammika Perera who was tipped to be the SLPP candidate. Both Basil and Namal wanted Dhammika. If he was not amenable, Namal said he would enter the fray. 
After the July 29 SLPP politburo meeting decided to field a party candidate, it became apparent that Dhammika Perera would be the party choice. Apart from SLPP votes, Dhammika in his own right was expected to garner  a large number of votes. 

 Dhammika was ready to contest and began making rapid preparations. Posters were printed and a campaign song commissioned. In accordance with astrological advice, Dhammika Perera wanted his SLPP presidential candidate announcement made on August 6 at the Nelum Pokuna. Earlier the SLPP  had wanted the announcement to be made on Aug 7. 

Suddenly everything changed. Dhammika Perera informed the SLPP officially that he was unable to contest as presidential candidate due to personal reasons. There was much speculation about what had happened. Many possible reasons were in circulation. 

 It was said that Perera’s mother had been hospitalised  due to a medical emergency and that was why he had changed his mind. It was also said that Dhammika’s wife and children had strongly objected to his contesting. Another  possible reason was that business associates had strongly advised Dhammika not to go ahead as his commercial interests could be affected. Some circles close to the businessman opined that Dhammika had been rattled by the large scale desertion of the SLPP by its prominent members. He got cold feet about his chances of success with a depleted SLPP  backing him and had backed out. 

Namal Rajapaksa’s Entry
Whatever the reason, Dhammika Perera’s exit has paved the way for Namal Rajapaksa’s entry. He is now the SLPP candidate. While antipathy towards Wickremesinghe influences Namal to a great extent in opposing him, there is another reason also which motivates the Medamulana crown prince. 

Namal genuinely believes that the SLPP must contest the 2024 presidential poll if the party is to remain as a powerful political force. He felt  the SLPP and himself by extension would have no political future if the party simply supported Wickremesinghe. 
Fate has now decreed that Namal Rajapaksa be the SLPP’s presidential candidate.  His candidacy  was formally announced by party General Secretary Sagara Kariyawasam at an auspicious time on Wednesday August 7. The historical event took place at the party headquarters  in Battaramulla. It was a low-key affair. 

After shaking hands with Sagara, Namal went down on his knees before father Mahinda and uncle Basil to receive their blessings (and kisses). He was then mobbed by party members including MPs who congratulated and wished him well. Namal’s face seemed to be radiantly happy. 

Namals other uncles Chamal and Gotabaya were absent at the event. While his cousin  Matara MP Nipuna Ranwaka was at the event, Namal’s other cousin Moneragala MP and State Minister Shasheendra Rajapaksa was not there. Namal’s mother Shiranthi and brothers Yoshitha and Rohitha too were not present. 

Many theories are being floated about the absence of Rajapaksa family members. It is being said that uncle Chamal and brothers Yoshitha and Rohitha wanted the party to back the president  and are upset by Namal’s hostility towards Ranil. But circles close to Namal say the intention was to keep the event a party affair and not a family affair. Whatever may be the case, it is well-known that the Rajapaksas would always close ranks against “outsiders” whatever their internal squabbles. 

Dustbin of History
Namal Rajapaksa knows he cannot  win this presidential poll. His intention however is to poll a reasonable number of votes and prove to the world that the Rajapaksas are not yet  in the dustbin of history. Namal wants to demonstrate that his father’s charisma and image has not shrunk despite his age and health. Above all Namal wants to show that the defection of SLPP stalwarts has not diminished the party and  still  remains a potent force among the people.

If Namal Rajapaksa is successful in garnering a sizable number of votes, that would help consolidate his leadership position within the SLPP. Also since most SLPP seniors have gone over to Ranil, Namal’s authority will be greatly enhanced. 

Utilising his presidential poll votes as a base, Namal could lead the party at the next Parliamentary elections and win a large number of seats. This may enable him to become either the prime minister of a coalition Government or leader of the Opposition. This would help Namal to contest the presidency again in 2029 and perhaps win. 

All this of course is fine if everything goes according to plan. But then  “the best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry” wrote Scottish Poet Robert Burns. What would happen if Namal Rajapaksa fares miserably at the 2024 presidential poll? Does Namal have the grit and resilience of Ranil  to rise up from the ashes like the mythical phoenix?

D.B.S.Jeyaraj  can be reached at [email protected]