National Government targeting the SJB?

According to a news item published in the Daily Mirror on Monday, President Ranil Wickremesinghe is to call on all political parties on April 25 to join a National Government to resolve the current problems faced by the country. 

Quoting the leader of the Tamil Progressive Alliance Mano Ganesan, the news reports said the President is to invite the political parties for a National Government while participating in the debate on the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) offered by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to Sri Lanka. (The debate has now been postponed by one day) Ganesan had said that the President had told this when he and Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) leader Rauff Hakeem met him.

Ganesan and Hakeem are said to be attempting to politically unite the United National Party (UNP) led by President Wickremesinghe and the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) under which they have been returned to Parliament. However, SJB leader Sajith Premadasa, who is also the Opposition Leader is said to be against such a political coalition. 

The trio who are well versed on the subject of economy know that the path ahead is bumpy and the programme is not going to resolve the economic issues soon

Defining the National Government, the Constitution says “National Government means, a Government formed by the recognized political party or the independent group which obtains the highest number of seats in Parliament together with the other recognized political parties or independent groups.” 

Based on this definition one can argue that the President does not need to take pains constitutionally to form a National Government anew, as the current Government falls under that definition. 

Still, the ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) maintains the majority in Parliament, despite many members of it having broken ranks with it while the solitary UNP member, Vajira Abeywardena is also representing the Government. 

Therefore, there is a National Government in the practical sense. Here, when the Constitution refers to “Other recognized political parties,” the number of members of those parties is immaterial. 

However, what the President seems to want is to bring the SJB, the leaders and members of which were subordinates of his party till 2019, under his control again. 

Certainly, he is not concerned about the Jathika Jana Balawegaya (JJB) or National People’s Power (NPP) led by the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) since the NPP has only three seats in Parliament and the possibility of them joining the government is extremely remote. 

Rumours in recent days had it that some of the members of the SJB were keen to join the Government. Some of those inferences seem to be not merely rumours but the people in question are not hesitant to express their willingness to cross over. 

SJB MPs such as Dr Harsha de Silva, Eran Wickramaratne and Kabir Hashim are supportive of the current programme with the IMF, despite their reservations on some of the reform proposals under the programme. They claim that the President is implementing the SJB policies. This has raised speculations about their possible crossover.

However, they deny those speculations. Dr Harsha de Silva told the media on Wednesday that he would not join a Government that has no mandate to govern. Besides the mandate, they might have taken into consideration the recent opinion polls which also showed a bleak picture of the SLPP and the UNP. 

Despite the Government supporters having celebrated the approval of the IMF bailout package by its Executive Board on March 20, the trio who are well versed on the subject of economy know that the path ahead is bumpy and the programme is not going to resolve the economic issues soon. 

As politicians, they seem to want to get assured of their political future before joining the Government at this juncture. 

However, Kalutara District Parliamentarian Rajitha Senaratne is very keen to change sides and he already told what he wants in the Government. He had stated more than once that he would be happy to accept the health portfolio which he held during the so-called Yahapalana Government under Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe.

That indicates that he is willing to join the government just to get a portfolio and not “to strengthen the hands of the President.” 

His remarks have provoked the SLPP to renew their long-standing demand for portfolios for some of their district leaders. The SLPP had said Kalutara District MP Rohitha Abeygunawarena must be accommodated into the Cabinet if Senaratne is absorbed into it. 

For them, as for the other politicians, portfolios are not responsibilities given to individuals to resolve problems faced by the people or the country based on their education, experience or talents, but an opportunity to amass wealth and live a luxurious life on public funds. 

Nevertheless, it is said that President Wickremesinghe is not keen to persuade the Opposition MPs, especially those of the SJB to cross over to the Government individually. Media reports quoted him as saying that he encourages political parties, and not individual MPs to join the Government. The idea may be aimed at bringing the entire group that left his party some four years ago under his leadership again. This is important for him as his party, the UNP, has lost its entire vote bank with the defection of the Sajith Premadasa group to form the SJB.

Despite former Minister Navin Dissanayake having said recently that Wickremesinghe wanted to dissolve the UNP after the humiliating defeat at the 2020 Parliamentary Election, with the assumption of office as the President his hopes would have revived. 

Yet, without a strong vote base, he would not be able to face the next Presidential election which is due at the end of next year. 

Although a small group of SLPP MPs seem to be willing to accept Wickremesinghe as their next Presidential candidate, all indications are that the Rajapaksas are not prepared to give up so easily. They are not prepared to accept that their dynastic rule has come to an end. 

However, if Wickremesinghe continues to stay in office for another five years after his current term ends next year, the revival of the dynasty would be a remote reality. 

According to the Constitution, Wickremesinghe as a succeeding President cannot go for a mid-term Presidential Election. Hence, the next Presidential Election would be held between September 18 and October 18 (Not later than one month and not earlier than two months before the term of the current President ends). 

President Wickremesinghe and his party, despite his executive powers, are without a political support base. Also, the 17 months leading up to the next Presidential Election is sufficient for any political change - favourable or unfavourable to any party - to occur. It is hence safe for the President to strengthen his vote base from now on. 

Nevertheless, the success of his National Government plan or the move to tame the SJB is not an easy task. In spite of a section of the SJB willing to join the Government, especially for perks and privileges the party knows, based on the recent opinion polls, that they have a huge support base compared to the UNP and the SLPP. They were second only to the NPP, according to those polls. 

The country is not out of the woods economically. And the IMF-led reform programme might be painful and that might further erode the two ruling parties’ support base. 

Those factors might discourage the leading SJB members from joining the Government. But still, one cannot deny the fact that perks and privileges have a great attraction. We have to wait and see how the President as a shrewd politician is going to play the game.