Opposition dilemma over IMF programme

Unlike in the past, people seem to be very concerned about the economic activities taking place in the country, as they fear about their future and that of their children  File photo- Reuters

The Presidency of Gotabaya Rajapaksa as well as his government had come almost to the brink of their collapse in mid-May following a massive economic crisis with fuel and gas queues extending up to several kilometres and several days while power cuts extending up to nearly ten hours a day

And the countrywide protests and the reaction of the leaders of the government to them had created a situation where the Prime Minister had resigned and the President was helplessly struggling without knowing what to do

A situation has been developed where the Opposition parties and the protesters are not in a position either to support or to oppose the government’s main programme, the one involving the IMF

If the programme with the IMF succeeds the country would get a breathing space and the government would overcome the current political mess by ensuring the smooth supply of gas, fuel and electricity

With the appointment of United National Party (UNP) leader Ranil Wickremesinghe as the Prime Minister on May 12, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa seems to have been relieved of a heavy burden and a massive pressure which had nearly ousted him from power. On the other hand, Wickremesinghe’s appointment in a similar proportion has diluted the tempo of the agitations against the government by the Opposition and other groups. 

The Presidency of Gotabaya Rajapaksa as well as his government had come almost to the brink of their collapse in mid-May following a massive economic crisis with fuel and gas queues extending up to several kilometres and several days while power cuts extending up to nearly ten hours a day. The economic crisis had created a massive political crisis as well, forcing the President to sack his ministers and replace them with another group. 

The attack on the agitators in Galle Face Green who had been peacefully demanding the ouster of President Rajapaksa by the thugs who had been brought in thousands by the then Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa to his official residence, “Temple Trees” on May 9 had brought the government to its knees. Prime Minister Rajapaksa who is also President’s elder brother had to announce his resignation from the post and take refuge in a navy camp in Trincomalee on the same day, hours after he vowed not to succumb to the pressure to
step down. 

The mob attack on the peaceful protesters prompted violent reprisals endangering the lives and properties of politicians and the President had to struggle to find a Prime Minister amidst a threat by the Central Bank Governor Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe to step down if the stability of the government is not ensured within a week. A desperate President who took steps to pass the 20th Amendment to the Constitution little more than a year ago even announced that he was prepared to forgo executive powers and transfer them to the Parliament. He pleaded with Ranil Wickremesinghe and Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa to accept the premier post. 

It would have been a great solace to the President and he would have been overjoyed when Wickremesinghe who for him is more dependable than Premadasa came forward to accept the post. Besides, Wickremesinghe is apparently more knowledgeable than the majority of members of the current Parliament on economic and international issues – a fact that might have given confidence to the President. 

Before that, the President was almost about to concede to the main demand and slogan of the protesters “Gota go home” due to his inability to find solutions to the economic crisis and to resolve the anarchic situation that had sprung with the attack on the protesters at Galle Face Green. However, Wickremesinghe made him relax in the President’s House with confidence and a sense of safety.  Yet, it was a setback for the Opposition parties that have been waiting to capture power and the Protesters who had been eager to see the President “going home” as they were frustrated and angry over the repercussions of the economic crisis on them.  The protesters’ demand was justifiable in every sense as the current regime not only failed to turn back the disastrous economic policies of the governments that ruled the country for the past 74 years since Independence but also ruined the country with its irrational and ridiculous actions. Even the President publicly acknowledged the irrationality of some of the steps that his government had taken. Hence, it was clear that the people have the right to change the government which had lost its mandate.  

And the countrywide protests and the reaction of the leaders of the government to them had created a situation where the Prime Minister had resigned and the President was helplessly struggling without knowing what to do.  The situation was so tricky and people were bewildered that even the Opposition leader Sajith Premadasa offered to take up the Premiership, first with a condition for the President to step down and later without any condition. It was then that Wickremesinghe entered the scene and saved the day for the President and the government.

The government is now somewhat settled. It has a programme, a programme involving the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to offer to the people on which the entire country has now reposed its hopes. This has negatively impacted the Opposition parties and the protesters who are not affiliated with any particular political party. The slogan “Gota Go Home” seems to have lost largely its intensity, despite it having not lost its validity. 

A situation has been developed where the Opposition parties and the protesters are not in a position either to support or to oppose the government’s main programme, the one involving the IMF. Prime Minister Wickremesinghe on Wednesday announced in Parliament that the economy has collapsed. The only option left to the country to overcome the foreign debt issue and the current foreign exchange crisis is to seek the financial assistance of the IMF and its assistance for a debt restructuring process. The initial discussions with the IMF have commenced while the government has appointed international financial and legal advisors for the debt restructuring programme. 

If the programme with the IMF succeeds the country would get a breathing space and the government would overcome the current political mess by ensuring the smooth supply of gas, fuel and electricity. If that happens there is a possibility of people forgetting the stupid actions of the government that had brought about the current economic catastrophe. Leaders of the government would then start boasting about their skills and successes as happened after the end of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country.  

This is the dilemma now the Opposition and various groups that are protesting against the government have faced with. From a political point of view, they cannot wholeheartedly support the government’s current salvaging programme as the government will ultimately get the credit for it and ensure its survival. Nor can they oppose it for it might provoke the wrath of the people who are at the receiving end of the current economic disaster.  

Unlike in the past, people seem to be very concerned about the economic activities taking place in the country, as they fear about their future and that of their children. Politicians including the Prime Minister are always warning of a bleak situation in the coming weeks. Due to the hardships, they have been undergoing for the past several months, people have learnt what the foreign reserves are and are heavily relying on the IMF programme. Against this backdrop, no political group is able to decisively oppose that programme, even if it is detrimental
to the country.   

The predicament of the groups against the government, especially the leftists reminds us of the debate among various Marxist groups over forming coalition governments with capitalist parties in the past. Some of those groups argued then that ad hoc economic reforms by the incumbent governments instead of a complete change of the economic and political system would not solve the problems faced by the people but only satisfy them temporarily. This, they contended would only help prolong the existing corrupt system, preventing any change. They wanted a complete change of the system which they
called a revolution. 

On the other hand, the contention of those who held the opposite view was that people need at least temporary solutions immediately to their problems as they cannot suffer until a revolution takes place someday in the remote future. Their argument was considered to be a ploy to enter into the capitalist governments and enjoy perks and privileges and they were called reformists by the revolutionists.  In Sri Lanka, the “revolutionists” of the present day – the left parties and those involved in the Aragalaya seem to be in a quandary as they can neither support nor oppose the IMF programme.