Pelosi’s Taiwan time bomb as Lanka faces dilemma over Chinese research vessel

India fears that the Yuan Wan 5 type ship could track activities at its strategic sites in South India

As the controversy over Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan was raging last week, China was also occupied with a crisis centering on Sri Lanka

China’s foreign and defence ministry mandarins must be extremely busy and unceasingly diligent these days, in view of matters relating to the United States House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s daring visit to Taiwan this Tuesday in defiance of threats China held out.
Some may say the drubbing the Pelosi visit delivered has reduced China to a mere paper dragon and rendered ineffective China’s aggressive and assertive diplomacy over matters it considers non-negotiable and too close to its soul. 

They may say that whatever warnings China held out and sabre-rattling it resorted to appeared damn squib as Pelosi, unnerved by the consequences, had a stopover in Taiwan, meeting government leaders and pledging that America would stand by its democratic ally.
The 82-year-old gutsy House Speaker crossed the redline China had drawn, despite criticism in sections of the US media that she was being “utterly reckless, dangerous and irresponsible.”

Yet it appears that Pelosi’s time-bomb visit to Taiwan had the secret blessings of the Joe Biden administration which wanted to test China’s ability to retaliate if provoked. Some even see the visit that placed the US forces in the region on military readiness with a warship providing cover as an attempt by the Biden administration to prove its machismo credentials to prop up its popularity ahead of mid-term elections in November. Some also ascribed an election motive to the US attack that killed al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri on Sunday.
The Chinese media reported that China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would conduct a series of live-fire military drills from August 4 to 7 in six different areas that encircle the island of Taiwan.

The Communist Party mouthpiece Global Times said there were many options on the table for China to speed up the process to reunify with Taiwan which Beijing has declared as part of its territory. It said that apart from military drills, the options could include striking Taiwan military targets, pushing new legislation for national reunification, sending military aircraft and vessels to enter the island’s “airspace” and “water areas” controlled by the Taiwan authorities and ending the tacit ceasefire with the Taiwan military.
But China’s retaliation appeared well thought out and in the right measure. It certainly did not mirror Russia’s action on Ukraine.

In February this year, the US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) called Russian President Vladimir Putin a bluff and ignored Russia’s ‘Redline’ warning that if Ukraine were to join NATO, the response would be “asymmetrical, swift and tough”. 
And Putin did not bluff. But China does act in its own way. As Confucius’s advice goes, “It does not matter how slowly you go, so long as you do not stop.”

Yesterday, China began what it terms the largest-ever live-fire military exercise encircling Taiwan on six fronts. But it is unlikely that President Xi Jinping would emulate Putin and invade Taiwan, triggering a global war. Such a conflict is certainly not in the interest of either China or the US. It will also deal a devastating blow to poor nations such as Sri Lanka which is struggling to salvage itself from a catastrophic economic crisis caused by the Covid pandemic and the ineptitude of successive governments.

Yuan Wan 5 controversy

As the controversy over Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan was raging last week, China was also occupied with a crisis centering on Sri Lanka. It offered China an opportunity to convey to both India and the US that it had not backed out from its assertive diplomacy.

After India expressed serious concerns over a Chinese research ship’s planned visit to Sri Lanka’s China-managed Hambantota Port, Beijing said on Friday it hoped “relevant parties” would refrain from interfering with China’s legitimate maritime activities.  India’s protest stems from its fears that the Yuan Wan 5 type ship, a vessel operated by the PLA, could track activities at its strategic sites in South India. Caught in the crossfire, the Sri Lankan government said it hoped to reach an amicable solution to the crisis with both China and India ahead of the vessel’s visit on August 11. 

Earlier, reacting to the vessel’s visit to Hambantota, which Indian analysts see as a dual-purpose commercial-cum-military port, India’s External Affairs Ministry spokesman Aridam Bagchi said: “The (Indian) government carefully monitors any developments having a bearing on India’s security and economic interests, and takes all necessary measures to safeguard them… I think that should be a clear message.”

China’s decision to assert itself broke its unusually long silence on Sri Lanka-related issues. China’s reaction points to its position that it will not sit idly by when its interests are threatened. China was livid when early this year India pressurised Sri Lanka to oust Chinese firms from power projects in the north. China also did not show any urgency to help Sri Lanka when rival India offered more than US$3 billion worth of emergency assistance to Sri Lanka, thus replacing China as Sri Lanka’s most-trusted friend. China’s unwillingness to bail out Sri Lanka is still an enigma to most Sri Lankans. 

Addressing a conference in New Delhi, USAID chief Samantha Power recently slammed China’s poor response to Sri Lanka’s economic crisis while she hailed India’s largesse. 
In response, China’s foreign ministry spokesman said its investments had boosted Sri Lanka’s economic development and brought tangible benefits to the Sri Lankan people.
In President Wickremesinghe’s policy statement on Wednesday, India came in for much praise for coming to Sri Lanka’s rescue but he made no mention of any Chinese assistance.
The controversy over the visit of the Chinese research vessel is perhaps the first foreign policy test for his government. 

In his speech, the President said that due to foreign policy instability Sri Lanka faced many disadvantages and setbacks in the international arena. “I will change this situation. All countries are our friends. We have no enemies. We do not belong to any group. I will ensure the adoption of a cordial and friendly foreign policy with all countries.”
Perhaps, in keeping with his friends-with-all policy, Wickremesinghe tweeted yesterday: “During a meeting with H.E. Qi Zhenghong, Ambassador of China, I reiterated Sri Lanka’s firm commitment to the one-China policy, as well as to the UN Charter principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity of nations.
“Countries must refrain from provocations which further escalate the current global tensions. Mutual respect and non-interference in the internal affairs of countries are important foundations for peaceful cooperation and non-confrontation.”

We do not know whether the tweets and the meeting with the Chinese envoy were his way of amicably sorting out the Yuan-Wan-5 issue. However, the visit of the research vessel once again displays the political truism that in South Asia, smaller countries cannot afford to throw in their lot with either China or India without embroiling in a foreign policy dilemma or earning the displeasure of one power or the other.