President’s visit to India: Opportunity or crisis?

President Ranil Wickremesinghe's visit to India has sparked both excitement and concern among the citizens of Sri Lanka. The visit, aimed at strengthening economic ties and exploring various cooperation opportunities, has the potential to bring about much-needed development to the island nation. However, there are concerns that this visit may compromise Sri Lanka's sovereignty and economic independence, turning it into a vassal state of India.

During his visit, President Wickremesinghe and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi discussed a range of issues and signed several agreements. One of the key outcomes of the visit is the decision to expedite the work to connect the electricity grids of the two countries. This move has the potential to address Sri Lanka's energy shortages and increase its power generation capacity. Additionally, talks on an economic and technological cooperation pact were initiated, which could pave the way for increased trade and investment between the two countries.

Furthermore, the leaders agreed to conduct a feasibility study for a petroleum pipeline, which would allow Sri Lanka to import oil directly from India. This move could reduce Sri Lanka's dependence on other oil-exporting countries and result in significant cost savings. Additionally, the viability of constructing a land bridge connecting the two countries is being examined, which would further strengthen trade and transportation links.

While these outcomes from the visit present numerous opportunities for Sri Lanka, there are concerns that the country may become overly reliant on India and lose its sovereignty and economic independence. India's increasing interference in various affairs of Sri Lanka, such as settling trade in Indian rupee and the implementation of the 13th Amendment, are seen as signs of growing Indian influence. There is a fear that accepting Indian aid may further deepen this interference and compromise Sri Lanka's decision-making autonomy.

Moreover, this visit is seen by many as a way for President Wickremesinghe to secure Indian aid in order to bolster Sri Lanka's economy, thus increasing his chances of winning next year's presidential election. While economic development is crucial for the country, it is important to ensure that the aid received does not come at the cost of compromising Sri Lanka's interests and sovereignty.

On the other hand, India sees this visit as an opportunity to address its own concerns, particularly related to the Tamil community in Sri Lanka and security cooperation. India has long-standing expectations from Sri Lanka regarding the Tamil issue and hopes that President Wickremesinghe will respond positively to these expectations.

Additionally, given the strategic location of Sri Lanka, India is keen on strengthening security cooperation between the two countries to counter potential security threats in the region.

Bilateral relations between Colombo and New Delhi face several challenges despite their commitments to stronger engagement. These challenges can be attributed to three main factors.

Firstly, the Indian central government is under political pressure from the Tamil Nadu state government to address the demands of Sri Lankan Tamils for rights and autonomy. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is less popular in the southern Indian states, and opposition parties have joined forces in an 'India' alliance to challenge the BJP. The Indian side is primarily motivated by Wickremesinghe's promise to implement the 13th Amendment, excluding police powers and the Truth and Reconciliation Commission.

However, the Sri Lankan president faces political obstacles in implementing the 13th Amendment. To avoid the political costs, he intends to shift the responsibility to the Parliament by convening an all-party conference on national reconciliation. However, this offer has been rejected by the Tamil National Alliance, who view it as another empty promise. Additionally, two key opposition parties, Samagi Jana Balawegaya and National People's Power, have refused to participate in the conference. Clear divisions between the pro-devolution and nationalist factions in parliament further complicate the matter. Minister of Parliament Udaya Gammanpila of the Sinhala Buddhist nationalist party, Pivithuru Hela Urumaya, plans to introduce a 22nd Amendment to the Constitution to remove police powers from the 13th Amendment.

The second challenge is managing Indian concerns over China's growing influence in the Indian Ocean region. Traditionally, a new Sri Lankan president's first official visit is to India, highlighting the key role India plays in Sri Lanka's foreign policy. However, since taking office in July 2022, Wickremesinghe has visited nine other countries before his official trip to India. Notable among these visits are the United Kingdom, France, Japan, and Singapore.

This shift in priorities reflects the urgent need for political leadership to secure consensus among key bilateral creditors regarding foreign debt restructuring. In early 2023, the Sri Lankan president obtained assurances from the Export-Import Bank of China, which were crucial in securing an IMF bailout package.

The third challenge stems from growing opposition within Sri Lanka towards bilateral issues. In early 2023, Sri Lanka's northern fishermen strongly protested the government's plan to issue licenses to Indian fishermen in Sri Lankan waters. Although the fisheries conflict has long existed, this issue was not addressed in the recent bilateral discussions.

Furthermore, in June 2022, a domestic controversy arose over an Adani project in Sri Lanka. A government official stated that the renewable energy project in Mannar was awarded to the Adani Group due to pressure from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on then-president Gotabaya Rajapaksa. It was recently confirmed during the official visit that the Adani Group's renewable energy project in Mannar will be completed by 2025.

While the recent visit by Wickremesinghe to India and the agreements reached in various areas were significant and timely, both governments face several challenges. Strengthening bilateral ties will require efforts to address these key challenges. Despite some improvements, further actions are necessary to bolster the relationship between these neighboring countries.

In conclusion, President Wickremesinghe's visit to India has the potential to bring about significant development and cooperation for Sri Lanka. The planned initiatives, such as connecting electricity grids, exploring an economic and technological cooperation pact, and examining the viability of a petroleum pipeline and land bridge, present numerous opportunities for economic growth and regional connectivity. However, it is crucial for Sri Lanka to balance these opportunities with safeguarding its sovereignty and economic independence. Accepting aid from India should not come at the expense of compromising the nation's decision-making autonomy. It is equally important for India to respect the wishes and interests of Sri Lanka, particularly in relation to the Tamil issue, and ensure that cooperation is mutually beneficial. Only through a balanced and mutually respectful approach can President Wickremesinghe's visit to India truly be an opportunity rather than a crisis for Sri Lanka.