Promise and caution: What the NPP epic victory augurs for Sri Lanka

The new Cabinet of Ministers of the NPP government

Whether you voted for the victorious NPP/JVP alliance, you didn’t’ or stayed at home, as did a good number of Opposition voters, there is no gainsaying that the just concluded general election of 2024 is a milestone. It is not just the sheer scale of the victory, though numbers are mind-boggling too. The NPP won 159 seats in Parliament, the most resounding victory since the proportional representation came into effect. But numbers tell only a partial story. This epic win is one and only of its kind in the history of elections in Sri Lanka and is inspirational. 
 The NPP swept the Sri Lankan electorate from North to South and East to West, transcending all ethnic and religious barriers for the first time in the history of elections in the country. That history dates back to the State Assembly 1931 under the Donoughmore reforms, which introduced universal suffrage. And it did so without resorting to ethnic bidding or ganging up in rent-seeking electoral alliances.

 Its election victory is a profound -though probably momentarily-  defeat to Sinhala Buddhist nationalism in the South and Tamil nationalism in the North. That is a victory all Sri Lankans should cherish. Though nationalism could be either good or bad and generally turns ugly in the long run, both nationalisms in Sri Lanka were mutually exclusivist and mutually reinforcing and had been a bane throughout history. More so, Tamil nationalism, which evolved from the very day of the independence as a simple vote-winning strategy, in isolation of all social and economic concerns of Tamils, managed to drive them to a suicidal terrorist insurgency. In contrast, majoritarian nationalism, as in the case of Sinhala Buddhist nationalism, cannot operate in isolation from other social-economic considerations, as revealed by the humiliating ouster of Gotabaya Rajapaksa. 

The NPP’s election victory in the North reveals what most of the majority of Sri Lankans have always believed, I.e., the travails of Sri Lankans are all the same, though one can not dispute that the North has specific grievances as a result of the long-running war, that the Tamil elites brought upon themselves.

The NPP government has a historical opportunity to solve the minority concerns on a more level playing field. Considering that it had won the North and the Central hills and fared well in the East, no one can dismiss it as a party that only represents the South. That should not be an incentive to force upon a solution – a primary drawback in the first autochthonous Constitution, the Republic Constitution of 1972. But, it should provide room to negotiate a lasting solution on a more equitable basis without being held hostage by the usual demands of ultra-nationalism on both sides of the ethnic divide. 

 Racist fantasy 

One can, however, be rest assured that the recurrent racist fantasy to abolish the 13th Amendment would now have to be put on the back burner.Tilvin Silva was right when he responded to a media query that the 13th Amendment was the only consolation the Tamils have, and the new government would not scrap it and if anything would build upon it.

That is a complete turnaround from a party that unleashed a nihilistic insurgency, feeding on the public anger over the 13th Amendment. That is a promising start on which the new government should build.

It should not let its political honeymoon be wasted away but use it to explore a mutually acceptable solution to the real and whatever perceived grievances of minorities. The sooner it starts, and the more quickly it accomplishes the task, the better since the honeymoon would not last long, as usual, and the everyday racist rabble-rousers who have been discarded to the dustbin now would return. 

Numbers are also important- but they can also have sinister underlinings. When J.R. Jayawardene won 5/6th in Parliament, he turned the country into his fiefdom, introduced a new constitution to suit his whims and fancies, and, in the end, left the country burning from both ends, in the North and the South. That was, after all, when he was shown his place by young Rajiv Gandhi. When Gotabaya Rajapaksa won 6.9 million votes, he was on a mission to transform Sri Lanka into an ethno-nationalist familiocracy. Still, his egoistism and singular stupidity had his downfall before he achieved a fraction of his goal. Mahinda Rajapaksa somehow bought over the rent-seeking pole-vaulters to secure a 2/3 majority in the House to pass a constitutional amendment which effectively made him the president for life. 

Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Leaders of this part of the world, considering their social and economic upbringing, have a unique psychological dispensation for power absolutism. The frail independent institutions, which are also headed by like-minded fellow travellers, do not necessarily provide the intended protection- even the stronger institutions are no match for the absolutism of the populist narcists as the Americans would soon find out under Trump’s second term.  

Put the NPP in the Rajapaksa’s shoes; one might expect it to make Tilvin Silva the Supreme leader of the country. That may be an exaggeration, but that is also a temptation that the JVP/NPP should eschew. 

 However, though I have strong reservations about the JVP/NPP’s economic policies, I consider the NPP’s social and political policies to be the most progressive of all political parties. Considering that it has overwhelming Parliamentary power, and the racist and puritanical dog whistlers are now consigned to the dustbin, it should make a genuine commitment to make these policies become a reality. Probably for a party that is lesser known to the world, a bit of branding itself as a force of liberal freedoms would help. Various measures such as  explicit constitutional guarantees of economic, political and social rights to decriminalising homosexuality, considering that the civilized world has not just moved a long way from those archaic laws but looks down upon those who are stuck there, would help it present a new brand of spirit. 

Elephant in the room

However, the elephant in the room would always be the economy. That is the weak link of the NPP government. Its promise for a corrupt-free Sri Lanka would have little practical effect in reinvigorating investor confidence if it keeps sending mixed signals or pulls back from economic reforms that the Ranil Wickremesinghe administration undertook under pressure from the IMF.

Its emphasis on skill development and education would produce little tangible result, if it shuns public-private partnership in higher education. The quasi-state monopoly in education has left a vast skill mismatch and deprived a majority of the youth of their rightful opportunity for some form of tertiary education, which is the primary ladder in upward mobility in this country.

Sri Lankans would be condemned to live another decade of economic ruin and corruption if it became a captive of its trade unions in the State sector and SOEs. There is nothing wrong with the government owning enterprises, but as history has revealed, governments are not equipped to manage them. At the least, they should be entrusted with holding companies similar to Singapore’s Temasek. 

However, those are commonsense economic lessons that most bedfellows in the NPP and JVP cannot come to terms with. Simple ideological dogmas are sometimes the hardest to unlearn.

 This makes me optimistic about the future of a country that could rise above race but at the same time be cautious of the economy.

Fellow @RangaJayasuriya on X