Seeing the General Election through Presidential Election

Talks to form a coalition between the UNP and the SJB for the upcoming General Election have come a cropper

The collapse of talks between the SJB and the UNP is far more detrimental to the UNP than the SJB on the ground that the danger of erosion of UNP vote bank due to desperation and frustration is greater than that of the SJB, now

The UNP leaders alleged that what they called the unfair conditions laid down by the SJB resulted in the breakdown of the talks between the two parties. 
According to media reports, the SJB has demanded that Ranil Wickremesinghe resigns as the leader of the UNP, the general secretary post of the proposed alliance be awarded to the SJB, the coalition contest under SJB’s symbol, the telephone and those politicians of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) who joined the UNP prior to the Presidential election be excluded from the alliance as preconditions for the formation of the coalition. 
Meanwhile, the General Secretary of the SJB, Ranjith Madduma Bandara had cited an alleged attempt by the UNP leaders to win over the SJB members to their fold while the talks for the coalition were progressing. Regardless of the veracity of these allegations by the two parties, now the talks have collapsed and there is hardly any possibility of a fresh round of talks coming to fruition mainly owing to the time factor attach to the nomination period for the November 14 General Election. 
The gazette issued by President Anura Kumara Dissanayake on September 24 declaring the dissolution of the Parliament had assigned the period between October 4 (yesterday) and October 11 for tendering nominations for the next Parliamentary election.  Hence, it is highly unlikely that any new electoral alliance between any two major political parties through serious discussion could be forged for that election. 
Many activists of both the parties, especially those of the SJB have already been appointed as organisers for electoral divisions (former electorates). Replacing them with members of another party at a time when the election is days away would lead to frustration among them and sometimes provoke defections to rival political camps. Sorting out this problem without such eventualities seems to be out of the question. 

Split in the UNP 

The split in the UNP in 2020 with the large majority of the leaders, organisers and the supporters of the party led by its Deputy Leader Sajith Premadasa leaving it to be accommodated into a new home, SJB was not triggered by any policy issue. It was the culmination of a long-drawn-out power struggle within the UNP that first cropped up in 2001 and emerged thrice after that with Sajith Premadasa entering into the fray in 2010. 
However, two major elections had saved the day for Wickremesinghe in 2001 and 2015 at which the UNP captured power in Parliament with Wickremesinghe assuming office of the Prime Minister. The infighting in 2018/19 was so decisive that Premadasa took the entire rank and file of the party into another borrowed party, the Ape Jathika Peramuna (AJP) and changed its name first as Samagi Jathika Balawegaya and days later as Samagi Jana Balawegaya. 
The crux of the internal haggle has never been any social or economic policy but always been a notion that had been built within the party that elections cannot be won under Wickremesinghe’s leadership. Later it became an ego issue between the two leaders. The same ego and the greed to power with much vigour have stood in the way to the reunification of the party this time. 
It is a sudden impulse in the leaders of both parties that had prompted them to form an alliance, after observing that the collective strength of both groups is higher than that of the NPP led by Anura Kumara Dissanayake at the Presidential election. Yet, they initiated the talks without any sign of ridding the ego that split the party four years ago. Their craving for power was so strong that both groups were so eager to form an alliance with the other group which they described a week ago as corrupt and incompetent to run the economy. 
Premadasa, during the last days of the Presidential election campaign had been alleging that President Wickremesinghe was having an underhand “deal” with NPP leader Dissanayake. Ridiculously, within a week after the election he had come forward through these coalition talks to forge a “deal” with Wickremesinghe against Dissanayake. On the other hand, Wickremesinghe during the election campaign put forward a bizarre argument that every vote cast for Premadasa amounted to one cast for Dissanayake, the meaning of which could only be explained by him. However, he too in a week after the election had attempted to join hands with Premadasa against Dissanayake. How dare these politicians insult the intelligence of the people. 

Collapse of talks 

The collapse of talks between the SJB and the UNP is far more detrimental to the UNP than the SJB on the ground that the danger of erosion of UNP vote bank due to desperation and frustration is greater than that of the SJB, now.
Where the politicians deserting the UNP in such an event are politically heading to is not so relevant as the people who had been behind them so far would not be prepared to go where ever they go. However, the voters who supported the UNP in the mere hope of being in the winning side would reconsider their decision at the forthcoming Parliamentary election.  
Although the new alignments of voters after the Presidential election are not clearly visible yet, SJB is going to lose a considerable segment of the votes it bagged at the Presidential election as a result of the Ilankai Thamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK) having announced that it would contest on its own in the Northern and Eastern provinces, at the general election. Despite any possibility of the ITAK supporting the SJB after the election, the latter might be deprived of bonus seats in five districts in those two provinces and its share for the national list seats would also considerably sink. 
According to the Constitution, an additional seat in Parliament would be allocated for the party that obtains the highest number of votes in a particular district at a general election. The NPP had got the highest number of votes in 15 districts at the Presidential election while the SJB did the same only in seven districts, purely due to the high concentration of minorities in those districts. If we are to expect the same voting pattern at the general election as well, the SBJ would be entitled to only two bonus seats in Badulla and Nuwara Eliya Districts.  Besides, there was only a razor-thin difference between the numbers of votes obtained by the SJB and the NPP in Badulla District.
On the other hand, despite the negative claims by other parties against the NPP having been proven false subsequent to Anura Kumara Dissanayake assuming office as the President, the main handicap of the NPP compared to other parties is that the large majority of their candidates for the general election is unknown to the voters. This is an election to choose local representatives of people, on district basis and thus the familiarity of candidates matters a great deal. 
The party has to overcome this issue with the impact of their victory at the Presidential election and exposure of the moral duplicity of their adversaries using their massive propaganda machinery.