Sri Lanka’s COVID - forex vicious circle

World-renowned Sri Lankan born virologist of  the University of Hong Kong Prof. Malik Peiris also making a virtual address to an event organised by Sri Lanka Science Foundation warned on Saturday that Sri Lanka was going to have the worse COVID-19 outbreak in the months ahead

The Director General of Health Services (DGHS), Asela Gunawardena on August 5 had confirmed the occurrence of 94 COVID-19 related deaths on the previous day. This might be the highest number of such deaths on a single day in Sri Lanka since the pandemic began to spread in the country in March 2020.  

Unprecedentedly, on June 11 the Epidemiology Unit of the Health Ministry announced the occurence of 101 deaths due to COVID 19, but it later transpired that the deaths had taken place during a period of four months from February 6 and certain deaths had been mentioned twice.   

This unusual calculation which was defended by the health authorities when the journalists questioned them came under fire by none other than President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and resulted in the transfer of the head of the Epidemiology Unit Dr.Sudath Samaraweera.   

The number of COVID 19 related deaths seems to give a more accurate picture on the pandemic situation in the country than the number of cases of infections reported daily, as the number of cases is decided on the basis of the number of PCR tests conducted. It is a well-known fact that the tests are conducted on a small number of persons but the results of them are deemed to represent the whole country.   

The alarming number of 82 deaths was reported on Wednesday while a fourth surge in the number of people infected with coronavirus was evident since early July. Now, given the media reports with imagery and statements by the experts in the health sector, the situation seems to be critical with some hospitals overflowing with pandemic patients.   

The COVID-19 ward at the Lady Ridgeway Hospital (LRH) for children in Colombo has reached its maximum capacity, Hospital Director Dr. G.Wijesuriya had said on Tuesday. Around 70 children infected with COVID 19 were receiving in-house treatment at the hospital on that day while around 15 cases were reported daily from the hospital, according to him.   

Thus, Sri Lanka Medical Association (SLMA) President Dr. Padma Gunaratne warned on the same day that the coming couple of weeks would be extremely crucial in terms of detecting more patients of the highly contagious Delta variant in the country. She had claimed that the number of cases reported daily was due to limited number PCR tests being conducted in a day and hence there were five times the number of active cases undetected in the community.   

Meanwhile the Association of Medical Specialists (AMS) President Dr. Lakkumar Fernando told media on Tuesday that with the increasing demand for oxygen, it will be a matter of few days before the available supply is exceeded and hence resultant deaths due to lack of oxygen or more importantly due to the lack of oxygen delivery mechanisms to the patient’s bedside. Neither we may like to hear these statements nor are we in a position to deny them with credible evidence.   

We seem to be passing through the fourth wave of COVID 19 in the country, as the current surge in cases and deaths is being evident after a gradual decline of them during the third wave which touched its peak in May, with over 3500 cases being reported a day. The number of daily cases slumped to 1500 by early July, prompting the authorities to relax the movement restriction on the public drastically from July 5. Yet, the health authorities who were wary of the situation warned of another spike due to the relaxation of mobility within the society which has now been proved correct with the number of cases reaching 2500 and the 82 deaths having been reported on Wednesday. It was again this backdrop the government called on all public sector employees to report for work at their respective work places from last Monday. 

 
However, the AMS said next day “with the Delta variant being commonly detected making the number of patients increase, the relaxation of COVID restrictions is like adding “fuel to the fire.” “We, as a professional body feel it is our prime responsibility to alert and warn the decision makers of the current grim situation. With such relaxations reaching the general public, who are already complacent in obeying guidelines, they will invariably start behaving like “free birds” aggravating the crisis further,” AMS President Dr. Fernando had stated.  

The situation is alarming with the spread of highly contagious Delta strain – also known as B.1.617.2 of COVID 19 – which according to the World Health Organisation (WHO) is expected to rapidly outcompete other variants and become the dominant circulating lineage over the coming months. The WHO also said a study done in Canada showed the risk of hospitalisation, ICU admission and death associated with the Delta variant compared to non-Variant of Concerns (VOCs) increased by 120 Percent, 287 percent and 137 percent respectively. Delta variant accounts for more than 80% of newly diagnosed cases in the US, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). COVID-19 cases have increased over 300% in the US from June 19 to July 23, 2021, along with parallel increases in hospitalizations and deaths, the CDC had said.  

It is estimated that at least 20 percent of the COVID 19 cases in the Colombo District have been caused by the new variant. World-renowned Sri Lankan born virologist of  the University of Hong Kong Prof. Malik Peiris also making a virtual address to an event organised by Sri Lanka Science Foundation warned on Saturday that Sri Lanka was going to have the worse COVID-19 outbreak in the months ahead.  

Nevertheless, the government seems to be determined to go ahead with its plan to open the country relying on the ongoing anti-COVID 19 vaccination programme which has earned praise from the WHO and the World Bank recently. It is here that the government’s position goes against that of the health sector experts. Dr Lakkumar Fernando is of the view that “relaxation should have commenced once the country had achieved vaccination targets along with declining number of COVID 19 daily cases, may be in four to eight weeks from now.”   

In fact, it was with the restrictions that Sri Lanka controlled the previous three waves of the pandemic. When the third wave broke out in April after the Sinhala and Hindu New Year period, the Washington University had estimated that more than 20,000 COVID-19 deaths in Sri Lanka could be expected by September, if the spread of the COVID-19 virus continued at the pace it had then. However, the restrictions imposed in May and June prevented such a drastic situation from happening.  

Now, the government is taking the risk, despite a more serious spike having broken out following each of the previous three relaxations of restrictions, as the economy is in the doldrums. While explaining the country’s economic situation the Reuters said on Wednesday “All the tell-tale crisis signs are there: bonds at nearly half their face value, debt-to-GDP levels above 100%, over 80% of government revenues being spent on interest payments alone and barely enough reserves to cover a few months of spending.” Sri Lanka paid a $1 billion bond last week, but the alarming state of its finances suggests it may have been just another step towards its first sovereign default, it further said.  

While a foreign exchange crisis is already in place a slump in the agricultural products is also looming as a result of the fertilizer ban which was resulted in by the forex issue and in turn has a potential to exacerbate the same issue – it is a vicious circle. Hence, it is really a catch 22 situation for Sri Lanka, which even a regime change would not help solve immediately.