The US could be the biggest loser in the Israel-vs-Arabs war

Israel war in Gaza and Lebanon has caused a heavy toll to both sides (File Photo)

One year after Hamas attacked Israel, this is no longer an Israel-vs-Hamas war. It has become an Israel-vs-Arabs war, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his hardline political allies determined to drive all Arabs away from what is known as Greater Isarel, a vision that has been there since the day the state of Israel came into being in 1948.

That vision has been pursued relentlessly by all Israeli governments – Likud, Labour, or coalition – ever since, by building more settlements on Palestinian land. But it’s Netanyahu who got into the driving seat of this Zionist dream after Hamas gave him the excuse to move into Gaza Strip, ostensibly to destroy Hamas. Now, one year later, he has sent his army (the IDF or Israeli Defence Force) into Lebanon, ostensibly to destroy or drive out Hamas’ ally Hezbollah which keeps firing missiles into Israel. Many inhabitants of northern Israel are not safe in their homes because of this.

Final goal 

But these are merely excuses for the final goal – Greater Israel with no Palestinians or other Arabs in it. At this moment, the Jewish and Arab populations of Israel and the West Bank are roughly fifty fifty.Netanyahu’s goal is to change this equation in Israel’s favour.

Those Palestinians who live in Israel have little political rights. Over 40, 000 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli attacks since October 2023, and it is laughable to think of any Palestinian’s rights, within or without Israel.

Now the big question is: Is Israel winning this war?

Opinions are sharply divided on this, even more so than over Ukraine. But several things have become clear through the haze of war.

Until last month, it looked as if Israel was winning. With massive U.S. military and financial aid, it was able to bomb Gaza Strip into rubble. Its air force goes unchallenged in the air. With the usual deadly efficiency of its intelligence services, it was able to kill  enemies not just in Gaza and Lebanon, but even in Iran. It bombed the Iranian embassy in Damascus. 

The killing of Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh effectively ended any chance of a ceasefire, as Haniyeh was the driving force behind it. This killing made it very clear that Israel does not want a ceasefire until its long term objectives are achieved.

More spectacular successes followed when both Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah and his successor were killed in Lebanon. One Hezbollah commander was killed at his home in Beirut.

All this makes it look as if Israel is winning the war. But what is actually happening?

After one year of relentless air and artillery bombardment and hunting on the ground, Hamas has not been destroyed. It has suffered heavily, but is still functioning. And it’s not short of new recruits, young men who have lost siblings, friends, relatives and entire families in Israeli attacks.

As for Hezbollah, it is fighting the IDF tenaciously in southern Lebanon. Despite its leadership being decapitated, it’s able to fire missiles into Lebanon, firing close to 200 missiles into northern Israel recently. 

One Israeli objective was to drive Hezbollah from the south of the Litani River to the north because of this. But Hezbollah can fire missiles into Israel from north of the Litani River as well.

Terrain in southern Lebanon is rugged, and Hezbollah has been preparing for an Israeli invasion for 18 years. Its fighters are highly motivated. They are defending home territory. Neither Hamas nor Hezbollah have tanks, heavy artillery or mechanised forces, but they are very good at guerrilla warfare especially in built up areas.

The idea behind the IDF is defense. But it is a very good example of the maxim that the best form of defense is offense. To defend Israel, the IDF has been sent deeper and deeper into Arab territory over the past months. 

 In 2024, the IDF ranked 17 out of 175 countries in the global firepower index. Its standing army numbers 170,000 personnel (smaller than Sri Lanka’s, but the IDF is highly efficient and well trained), with  465,000 reservists. Many of them are now fighting in Lebanon.

The IDF is highly motivated despite a few dissenters. But its ranks must be tired after months of fighting. Israel is vague about IDF casualties. But even small numbers of wounded can be damaging. An Israeli battalion is more like a reinforced company, and a division is akin to a reinforced brigade.

Israel’s military budget was $24.5 billion or 5.2% of the GDP in 2021. Now it must be higher. The Israeli economy is in trouble because of the war, and the military machine is kept going with huge infusions of American aid. The US Congress recently passed over $8 billion in aid over what has already been passed earlier this year. 

Many educated young Israelis have started leaving the country, and the country is internationally isolated with only the US as a staunch ally. The European Union has backed Israel’s excesses, but French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent criticism of Israel showed that all isn’t well within the EU, either, vis-à-vis Israel.

Netanyahu’s reaction was to make a scathing criticism of Macron. With the unquestioning support of the US and its all powerful Israeli lobby, he simply doesn’t care about world opinion.

Both US President Joe Biden and his Secretary of State Antony Blinken are committed to supporting Israel, but this policy is highly damaging to the US.

American political scientist Stephen Walt is one of those who expose the machinations of the Israeli lobby to silence all criticism of Israel’s genocidal war in American universities and media institutions. Academics have been silenced and journalists and news presenters fired for criticising Israel.

Criticisms 

Stephen Walt points out that these criticisms don’t amount to anti-Semitism as the Israeli lobby claims. But he warns that people don’t like being silenced and this could produce anti-Semitic feeling in future. Besides, the US image is badly dented around the world by its support of Israel, and it could also damage Democratic nominee Kamala Harris by alienating many Democratic Party voters.

Then, there is Iran to consider. The new regime in Iran is moderate compared to its predecessor but, if Netanyahu keeps expanding the war, it may consider building a nuclear bomb. Let’s look at that scary scenario in a later column.