The foreign policy of self-isolation from the West comes to bite

Two years back when Gotabaya Rajapaksa was elected president, he had the best of both worlds. At home, a good part of the Sinhala Buddhist constituency was beholden to him.   

Beyond the shores, key nations, especially those in Europe and America, were willing to work with him, despite their reservations about him.   

With a bit of common sense and pragmatism, he could have made miracles.   
Instead, he squandered both openings. At home, his voters are now poorer and hungrier than they were ever before.   

Sri Lanka has now hoping for an Indian forex package, yet without resorting to debt restructuring under IMF mediation, the debt worries would persist

When the fertiliser was plenty and queues were non-existent, and they were bellyful under a rather lukewarm government of Yahapalanaya, the spin doctors of the Rajapaksas managed to invoke the worst of their primordial impulses. So they elected him to protect the country from an untold number of foreign conspiracies and to restore the rightful place of Sinhalese at the expense of their fellow communities. Instead, he delivered penury and shortage. The daily inconvenience of queues has not discriminated against one particular community. So much so, a Global Early Warning-Early Action Report by the United Nation’s Food and Agricultural Organisation states that due to high food prices and widespread income losses, vulnerable Sri Lankan households have likely reduced their food consumption and/or switched to cheaper and less nutritious alternatives that would have negative consequences of their overall food security, health and nutrient status.   

The self-isolation from the West initially sent Sri Lanka further into China’s fold, yet, that partnership itself has proved to have its limits

If there is any consolation, the president’s bungling of the nation has been a moment of reckoning for most of his constituency. Under better economic conditions, the remaking of a racial exclusivist and militarised state would have been in full swing. But, one does not need to run the nation to the ground to prove his demagoguery.   

Foreign policy was bungled with equal vigour
The liberal democracies in the world welcomed Mr Rajapaksa cautiously. But, he snubbed them, in part to appease his domestic audience, and partly also because neither he nor his advisors had a realistic idea of the limitations of a small nation in making itself felt in the international system, no matter how big the egos of their leaders were. Small states do so by entrenching themselves in the international system and in the mutual interests of the countries that matter in the international system. Mr Rajapaksa shunned them, effectively committing Sri Lanka into self-isolation from the West, erroneously thinking that was non-alignment. Those countries, the USA, Japan, and to a certain extent the EU moved on.   

Now, the country is living off the short changes from countries like Bangladesh and Pakistan, that generosity will also have its limits

Last week, G.L. Peiris, the foreign minister told a political rally in Anuradhapura that the Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar had assured him, during his visit to New Delhi, that India would plead Sri Lanka’s case at a meeting of Foreign Ministers of Quad countries in Australia. Quad or Quadrilateral Security Dialogue is a grouping comprising the United States, India, Australia, and Japan. It is a soft balancing initiative against rising China, by the countries that are threatened by it.   

Interestingly, when there was an opportunity for cooperation, Gotabaya Rajapaksa snubbed them. His government gave short shrift to a US$ 500 million grant from the United States Millennium Challenge Corporation in order to validate its own conspiracy theories.   

It also suspended the Colombo Metro rail project financed by Japan International Cooperation Agency, alienating a key development partner.   

Now, the country is living off the short changes from countries like Bangladesh and Pakistan, that generosity will also have its limits.   

Much of the Western democracies had lost appetite for closer cooperation with an authoritarian, illiberal leadership in Colombo.   

Sri Lanka’s economic woes and the government reaction are now proving their own thesis on the calibre of the domestic leadership.   

The self-isolation from the West initially sent Sri Lanka further into China’s fold, yet, that partnership itself has proved to have its limits. China can substantially alleviate Sri Lanka’s foreign exchange crisis, but its contribution has so far been modest. Having burnt nearly $50 billion in Venezuela, the Chinese leadership is risk-conscious. Sri Lanka has now hoping for an Indian forex package, yet without resorting to debt restructuring under IMF mediation, the debt worries would persist.   

In the meantime, this year the country is facing a renewal of GSP Plus trade concession by the EU, the largest export partner. The sudden interest in amending the Prevention of Terrorism Act is due to the EU demands for reforms in the law that is both draconian and is often abused. Sri Lanka lost the GSP Plus concession during the Mahinda Rajapaksa presidency, which bragged as if losing it was an achievement. However, now that the country is penniless, any disruption would have a drastic consequence for the economy and livelihood of half a million workforce in the garment sector.   

Today, Sri Lanka is silently suffering. If Mr Rajapaksa made use of early opportunities for greater international engagement with the countries that really matter, probably we would have been better off.   
Follow @RangaJayasuriya 
on Twitter