The war in Ukraine: Who wins who loses

Phase II of the Russo-Ukraine war has now entered is 12th month, (the first stage beginning with the annexation of Kiev in February of 2014), when Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine. 

The immediate cause of the conflict was Ukraine’s attempt to join the US-led NATO military alliance (NATO) which Russia sees as an attempt to encircle it (Russia) and bring US missiles and military to Russia’s doorstep. Quite early on   Russia warned that this was a red line which should not be crossed.   

Sadly, the warning was not heeded and on 24 February last year, armed conflict between the two countries broke out. The conflict also revolves around Ukraine’s alleged discrimination against the Russian-speaking parts of Ukraine -the Donbas and Crimea regions of Ukraine and the city of Kharkiv. 

Henry Kissinger the former German-born US Secretary of State and National Security Advisor under the administrations of Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford, in a recent article presented a different perspective of the conflict. He claimed -a neutral status for Ukraine can no longer serve as a subject for negotiation- as the subject was no longer relevant. In fact Ukraine today is to Europe, what Israel is to the Middle East -a centre of destabilization and a client state of the US. 

Ukraine is now a formidable, powerful and capable armed nation, actively armed and assisted by the West, primarily by the US. It is now America’s de facto, military ally, making it easier for the US to deal with, than if it were a member of the NATO; as there are no legal commitments. Resultantly the level and scale of support can vary according to the situation. Kiev’s loyalty to Washington is thus assured as it (US) is the main guarantor of resources to that country rather than its European neighbours in NATO. In addition, Ukraine today has practical experience of direct large-scale confrontation with Russia.   

Ukraine’s forces are being equipped and trained, as it is important to enhance Ukraine’s own capabilities, to ensure that at any subsequent phases of confrontation, it can continue without the direct involvement of US and NATO.   
Much like Israel’s claim to be a beacon of democracy in the Middle East, today Ukraine claims that thanks to its efforts, the rest of Europe lives in peace without the threat of Russian bombs and missiles. While there is no guarantee that this is a workable, as Russia has the capacity - arms, ammunition, aircraft and other weaponry- to crush Ukraine’s forces. The situation poses very limited risk to the US or its NATO allies getting directly drawn into active engagement in the battle itself.   

Both the US and NATO have been extremely careful to ensure that while Ukrainians and Russians die in the conflict, neither NATO nor the US will put boots on the ground. But Europe is feeling the ill-effects of the war in the Ukraine. West Europe being heavily dependent on cheap Russian gas and oil for electricity and heating. Since the conflict escalated, there has been a sharp hike in energy prices in the EU.   

This has produced an unprecedented increase in energy prices in the countries of Europe. In 2020, Russia accounted for around 29% of crude oil and 43% of natural gas imports into the EU. Today according to Fabrizio Ferriani and Andrea Gazzani   writing in ‘The Consequences of the War’, (Vox/EU CEPR), European gas and electricity wholesale prices have increased by 115% (109%) and 237% (138%) respectively. In turn it has resulted in EU states calling for dialogue and an end to the war.   

Europe’s call for a dialogue to end to the conflict has led to Ukraine becoming increasingly distrustful of continental Western Europe, pushing it further into the American orbit. To the US a well trained and heavily armed satellite bordering Russia on the one hand and western Europe on the other presents a win-win situation. 

 
The continued war in Ukraine has already caused the loss of thousands of Russian and Ukrainian lives and is a drain on its human and personnel resources. Ukraine has also today become a practical testing ground for modern weapons.   

Meanwhile, the US seems to be the sole winner in the conflict,However, the US should not forget the lessons of its involvement in Afghanistan. Al -Qaeda and IS, creatures of the US military, turned on its masters with the 9/11 attacks and creating of bedlam in Europe -with continued terrorist attacks in the countries of the European Union.   
One can only hope US involvement in Central Europe does see a similar continuation of similar terrorist attacks in the West.