Voter’s Dilemma: Revolutionary Change or Economic Foresight?

With the UNP and SJB sharing a common ideological foundation, brokers argue that a merger would significantly strengthen it by consolidating support and presenting a united front against opposing forces

 Calls for unity have gained traction, particularly among those within the party; yet, the clash between Ranil and Sajith continues to overshadow these efforts, as their personal ambitions and egos fuel the ongoing division

 In advocating for change, JVP stands out as the most prominent option, but their economic competence is questionable; in contrast, Sajith is supported by some of the best economic minds, and Ranil, while lacking a similarly strong economic team, brings experience and competence to the table

Traditional marriage brokers are gradually fading from relevance as modern values and lifestyles shift away. Their disappearance has made way for a different type of intermediary — political marriage brokers. These figures operate in the realm of power and influence, connecting political factions through alliances with the objective of consolidating political strength.

Recently, a senior Member of Parliament resigned from her seat in protest, citing frustration over the refusal of her political party to accept her proposal to form an alliance with the “mother party.” This resignation highlighted the ego-centric internal rifts and struggles within political factions, where individuals or groups seek to create stronger unions for political gain but face opposition from within their own ranks. Just a week later, another broker from the other faction made an emotional public confession, also expressing disillusionment over the same issue, leading to his decision to become an independent representative. This event further revealed the fragile and shifting nature of political allegiances.

With both factions, United National Party (UNP) and Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) sharing a common ideological foundation, these brokers argue that a merger would significantly strengthen it by consolidating support and presenting a united front against opposing forces.  However, engaging in unity talks at this late stage, especially after nominations, appears disgraceful and signals an admission of weakness. Should these talks fail, it would only enhance the chances of their opponents, further eroding public confidence and potentially leading to electoral defeat.

However, the deep-rooted personal rivalries between key leaders remain the primary stumbling block. The calls for unity have gained traction, particularly among those within the party who recognise the strategic advantage of merging. Yet, the clash between Ranil and Sajith continues to overshadow these efforts, as their personal ambitions and egos fuel the ongoing division. 

However, the leaders are overly enthusiastic about the superficial displays of strength they witness at large political gatherings. These rallies, while impressive in terms of numbers and energy, provide a distorted sense of the party’s actual standing among the broader electorate. The applause, slogans and orchestrated support at these events create a dream world for these leaders, giving them a false sense of security and political dominance.

Rejecting the proposal, Sajith sharply retorted, “I will not form an alliance with an Asuddha party [impure factions],” as if implying that his own alliance is as pure as gold.

The minority vote, especially from the North-East and Estate sectors, played a critical role in boosting Sajith’s share in the 2019 election. These communities, which voted en-masse for Sajith, helped amass his 5.5 million. However, the current political landscape shows a division, especially, the Tamil vote in his support base between Sajith and Ranil, with Ranil still commanding a slightly higher portion than Sajith. The days when the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) held unchallenged dominance over the Northern and Trincomalee/Batticaloa vote are now in decline, as evidenced by the results of the last general election. Even the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), traditionally weak in the North, managed to secure a respectable percentage of the vote, indicating a more fragmented political dynamic among Tamils. Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) will assure 75-80 percent of Batticaloa and Ampara districts Muslim vote for Sajith, while the Muslims in other territories are again split among all three contenders.

If the minority vote continues to operate as a cohesive block in his favour, as it did in 2010 [Fonseka], 2015 [Sirisena], and 2019 [Sajith], he could marginally surpass his main rival, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP). The support from the Northern and Estate sectors is crucial, as it has historically provided them with a significant electoral boost. However, any substantial split in minority vote between Ranil and Sajith, as seen in recent times, would not only jeopardise Sajith’s chances but also fail to benefit Ranil. Instead, the split would strengthen Anura Kumara Dissanayake.

Anura has increasingly positioned himself as a viable alternative to all traditional parties, appealing to disillusioned voters seeking change. The JVP’s rising popularity is largely due to their ability to attract those frustrated with the long-standing dominance of Sri Lanka’s established political elite. Many see the JVP as the answer to the so-called “76-year curse” of governance, urging for the change that the Aragalaya movement called for. Although the JVP was not directly involved in the Aragalaya uprising, which revolutionised Sri Lanka’s political landscape, they have successfully aligned themselves with its message of reform and anti-corruption. This growing sentiment mirrors the events of 1953-1956, when the Marxist parties — the Lanka Sama Samaja Party (LSSP) and Communist Party (CP) — launched the Hartal in 1953, igniting widespread unrest. This movement ultimately weakened the UNP, the Prime Minister had to resign, paving the way for an outsider, S.W.R.D. Bandaranaike, to harness popular discontent and defeat the ruling party two and a half years later, in 1956.

Similarly, the current political environment, with its fragmented minority vote and increasing demand for systemic change, presents an opportunity for the JVP to disrupt the traditional power structures, much like Bandaranaike did decades ago.

When it comes to advocating for change, the JVP stands out as the most prominent option. However, their economic competence is questionable, with a less-than-credible figure leading their economic team. In contrast, Sajith is supported by some of the best economic minds — Harsha de Silva, Eran Wickramaratne and Kabir Hashim — assuming he allows them to work independently without interference from controversial figures, such as the pole-vaulter who narrowly avoided jail with Mahinda’s backing.

Ranil Wickremesinghe, while lacking a similarly strong economic team, brings his extensive experience and competence to the table, which could rival Sajith’s team in effectiveness. This presents voters with a crucial choice: should they prioritise the potential for change promised by the JVP, or focus on economic expertise—whether from Sajith’s expert team or Ranil’s proven capabilities and seasoned leadership? It’s the million-dollar question—change or economic stability?

CHANGE or ECONOMY?

Is it too late for such an amalgamation? While anything is possible in politics, the timing seems critical. Any attempts at unity now may appear desperate, and if unsuccessful, could further shift the momentum in the JVP’s favour. A failed attempt could not only damage the credibility of the traditional factions but also strengthen the JVP’s standing as the party of reform, solidifying its appeal to disillusioned voters.

Both Ranil’s and Sajith’s factions are riddled with corrupt figures, tarnishing their political credibility and eroding public trust. In contrast, the JVP/NPP has built a reputation for being free of corruption—though, as some skeptics suggest, this could be because they have yet to wield power and face the temptations that come with it. Whether they can maintain this clean image if they gain influence remains an open question.

However, if the brokers succeed, a unity between Ranil and Sajith would undoubtedly rejuvenate the disillusioned supporters of the old guard UNPers, significantly boosting their chance of defeating Anura, who is currently enjoying a surge in popularity. Such a coalition could potentially curb the rise of the JVP, which has been capitalising on widespread dissatisfaction with the traditional political elite.