War drums, Russia’s red lines, NATO expansionism and Ukraine - EDITORIAL

Currently Europe is on edge. War drums are beating once again in the Balkans. Ukraine and Russia are as yet engaged in a war of words, with Ukraine claiming Russia is about to invade.   
Russia has massed tens of thousands of troops on the Russo-Ukrainian border. European’s fear a slight misstep could well lead to an outbreak of armed hostilities as happened in the aftermath of the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria and his wife Sophie by a Bosnian Serb student while on an official visit to Sarajevo on June 28, 1914. The killings sparked a chain of events that led to the outbreak of World War I which was followed by World War II  

Today’s Russo-Ukraine war of words is a carry over of the Russian annexation of Crimea, which came in the aftermath of Ukraine’s attempt to join the European Union and become a part of the NATO alliance. Russia fears a Ukrainian membership of the EU, would complete a western wall of allied countries restricting Russia’s access to the Black Sea. 

 
While there are many grievances between Russia and the west, the current confrontation is based on Russia’s belief that the west tricked the former Soviet Union by breaking promises made at the end of the cold war in 1989-1990 that NATO would not expand to the east -Russia agreed to German reunification on this basis. Unfortunately, a number of former members of the Soviet Union who have joined with the NATO have led to confrontation rather than co-operation, with Moscow.  

In his 2007 speech to the Munich Security Conference, Russian president Vladimir Putin accused the west of breaking assurances, leaving international law in ruins. Today tensions between Russia and Ukraine are at their worst level. The Western bloc believes Moscow could launch an invasion. Ukraine itself has charged Russia with attempting to destabilize the country. But Russia denies the charges and accuses the West of increasing weapons supply and military training to Ukraine which it sees as a growing threat to its western flank.  
Tensions between Ukraine and Russia escalated when talks on a political and trade deal between Ukraine and the European Union, which angered Russia, was cancelled by the then Ukranian president at Moscow’s behest. Following the cancellation of the Ukraine-EU talks violence broke out in Kyiv.   

Following the outbreak of violence, Russia annexed Crimea - an autonomous peninsula in southern Ukraine populated by Russian-speaking people on the basis of protecting them from the ongoing anti-Russian violence.   
The Western bloc described the annexation of Crimea as illegal. In retaliation, the US and the European Union imposed economic sanctions targeting individuals, and specific sectors of the Russian economy.  

Russia has repeatedly denied that it plans to invade Ukraine, insisting it does not pose a threat to anyone and that a country moving troops across its own territory should not be cause for alarm.  
Russian President Vladimir Putin has called for specific legal agreements that would rule out any further NATO expansion eastwards towards Russia’s borders, saying the West has not lived up to its previous verbal assurances.  

President Putin has also said that NATO deploying sophisticated weapons in Ukraine, such as missile systems, would be crossing a “red line” for Russia, amid concern in Moscow that Ukraine is being increasingly armed by NATO powers. Moscow also alleges that weapons and advisers were already being supplied to Ukraine by the US and other NATO member states.  All of this is aggravating the situation, and two days ago, after discussions with President Putin, the American President said he expects Russia to move in on Ukraine within days.   
On January 21, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his American counterpart, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed Moscow’s security proposals to determine whether a deal could be done to de-escalate tensions with NATO.   

After the talks, Blinken described Friday’s talks with Foreign Minister Lavrov, as frank and useful. Lavrov said he hoped emotions would cool and repeated Russian assertions that it poses no threat to its neighbour. Both sides agreed on the need to continue the diplomatic process.  
No mention of Ukrainian membership in NATO. Neither the European Union nor Ukraine - the countries directly involved in the confrontation with Russia, seem to have had any say in the ongoing discussions.   Mama Mia! It looks like a case of theirs not to reason why, theirs is but to do and die…