Who will minorities vote for?

The main presidential 
candidates have given prominence to creating a media 
hype rather than explaining their policies to resolve the socioeconomic issues (pix by Pradeep Pathirana)

The candidates for the September 21 Presidential election, especially the main candidates have given prominence to creating a media hype rather than explaining their policies and programmes to resolve the socioeconomic issues faced by the people.
Accordingly, a plethora of political somersaults and media shows have drawn the media attention these days. Also, some bizarre political developments are unfolding, possibly perplexing the ordinary voter, whether the politicians involved in those developments really meant it or not. 
The reason for President Ranil Wickremesinghe to contest as an independent candidate could only be justified by him. He is still the leader of the United National Party (UNP) and he has not abandoned its policies or the legacy of it. It is not clear as to why he thought that he would fare better by contesting as an independent candidate rather than contesting under his party’s Elephant symbol. 

Party symbols 

The party symbols hardly matter at elections now. The plantation community which has the minimal education facilities in the country never made any mistake in elections, despite their main party, the Ceylon Workers’ Congress (CWC) changed its symbol from time to time, from its own “Cockerel” to Elephant or to any other, depending on which party it had coalesced with.  
Minister Mahinda Amaraweera as if a principled politician said recently his faction of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) would not have supported Wickremesinghe at this election had he not been an independent candidate. It is pathetic rather than surprising if he has forgotten that his faction of SLFP severed links with his party leader Maithripala Sirisena after his faction intransigently rejected the latter’s instruction to refrain from supporting Wickremesinghe’s government, months ago. It was well known that ministerial positions and not principles or policies that stood between his faction and Sirisena. 
Subsequent to Wickremesinghe placing the deposit to contest the Presidential election on July 26, other leaders of his party interestingly announced at the party headquarters, “Sirikotha” that they passed a resolution to support Wickremesinghe at the Presidential election. It was nothing but Wickremesinghe supporting Wickremesinghe who is still the leader of the UNP.  
Similarly, several parties representing the minority communities that contested under the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) led by Sajith Premadasa and still working with that party adopted resolutions supporting Premadasa. And they announced it to the media as if groundbreaking political decisions. These resolutions may be administratively necessary for these parties, but with their attempt to create hype with them, they also contribute to mislead the masses.

 
Political parties 

Almost all political parties in the plantation areas, except for the Ceylon Workers Congress (CWC) led by Jeewan Thondaman this time support SJB as expected. While they have entered Parliament at the 2020 election under the “telephone” symbol of the SJB, they entered into what they called a “social agreement” with the SJB on February 14, this year for the upliftment of the livelihoods of the plantation community. It was a reiteration of their backing of Premadasa at the Presidential poll, as he had already commenced his campaign. 
However, the SJB had reached another agreement with the same parties along with some others that have been supporting the SJB to form an alliance called “Samagi Jana Sandanaya” (SJS) on August 8, with a view to support Premadasa at the upcoming Presidential Election. It was a huge show held at the Sugathadasa Indoor Stadium. Only a few individuals such as Dayasiri Jayasekara of one of the factions of the SLFP and Thilanga Sumathipala who represents a section of the United Peoples Freedom Alliance (UPFA) were the new entrants of the alliance.  
Subsequent to these two agreements, Premadasa signed a third agreement, a 48 point Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the same political parties representing the estate community on August 12. All these were shown as swelling of Premadasa’s vote base.
President Ranil Wickremesinghe and the SJB seem to have attached an unusually considerable significance to the plantation sector votes this time. While Premadasa has reached back to back agreements with the leaders of the estate sector political parties, Wickremesinghe has been attempting to woo the community by increasing their daily wage. He got the Commissioner of Labour to issue a gazette notification on April 30 increasing the daily wage of the estate workers up to Rs.1700 without arriving at a an agreement with the plantation companies. 
However, the Supreme Court on July 4 issued an interim injunction preventing the implementation of the Gazette following a petition filed by plantation companies against it. This was a huge blow and a prestige issue for the President at a time when he was facing a do-or-die electoral race and hence he somehow managed to push it through by way of a decision of the Wages Board on August 13.  Yet, the Wages Board has invited any objections to these proposals, which must be submitted by 12 noon on August 28.

Plantation workers 

Plantation workers are a section of the people of Indian origin which constitutes around 850,000 persons, according to recent statistics. According to the Department of Census and Statistics, the economically active population in the estate sector in 2022 is around 400,000 (394,939) to whom this wage increase would apply. However, it might hardly cause any change in the minds of the workers, as they are already divided on trade union lines, with the largest trade union CWC aligning with the President.
As far as the Muslims in the East are concerned, they had an issue with regard to devolution of power before 2006 when the Northern and Eastern Provinces had been merged under the Indo Lanka Accord. They argued that they would be a minority within a minority if the merger was made permanent. Following the de-merger of the two provinces in 2006 as per a Supreme Court ruling they do not have any political demand or slogan now, posing a question on the validity of the existence of Muslim political parties. However, the Sinhalese dominated major parties with their indifference towards the sporadic anti-Muslim hate speech let them justify their political survival.
Against this backdrop politicians in Muslim parties are currently taking decisions based on their personal survival, as most other politicians do. Their political alignments with main parties take shape in a manner their interests fit in to them, rather than the best interest of the community. They would not be accommodated to the National People’s Power (NPP) or the Frontline Socialist Party (FSP) even if they wished. At the same time, they are not prepared to be thrown into a period of political oblivion. Hence, they might push their community any time in a wrong direction. 

Tamil leaders 

Tamil leaders in the North and the East are divided into three groups, with one group, led by Gajendrakumar Ponnambalam, the leader of the Tamil National People’s Front (TNPF) promoting an idea to boycott the election while another group of five parties have already fielded a common Tamil candidate. A third group, the Illankai Thamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK) is weighing up the situation to vote for a south-based candidate.
The objective of the first two groups is to send a message to the international community that the Tamil people reject the south-based political leaders who do not accommodate their demands. This is a dangerous experiment this time as far as their objective is concerned since there is a possibility of Tamil people casting more votes to a south-based main candidate than to the common Tamil candidate or those who boycott the election. 
ITAK Parliamentarian M.A.Sumanthiran has stated that they would decide upon a main candidate who accept a governance structure with power devolution based on a federal modal, in a merged North and the East. If the party is so firm in this stance, they would have to vote for P. Ariyaneththiran, the common Tamil candidate and a member of their own party or for Nuwan Bopage, the horse fielded by the FSP, as no other candidate seems to be prepared to subscribe to his stand. Their integrity would be called in question among the Tamil people, if they support a main candidate, ignoring Ariyaneththiran, as electoral victory is said to be not their objective.   
Nevertheless, in the context of traditional attachments between politicians and the voters seem to have largely shattered after the economic crisis and the Aragalaya, new political trends seem have crept into the minority communities as well, especially into their younger generation.