Why Ranil is so Confident of Winning the Presidential Election

Ranil Wickremesinghe

Sri Lanka’s ninth presidential election will take place one week from now on 21 September 2024. Among the 38 contestants, three are regarded as the top contenders. They are President Ranil Wickremesinghe, Leader of the Opposition Sajith Premadasa and JVP/NPP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake. Three others namely Hambantota District MP Namal Rajapaksa, Ex-Batticaloa MP Packiyaselvam Ariyanethiran and Entrepreneur cum media mogul Dilith Jayaweera are likely to poll a sizeable number of votes.

Incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe was interviewed by “Daily FT’ Editor Nisthar Cassim earlier this week. The exclusive interview commenced with two questions about the forthcoming presidential election on Sep 21. The first question was –   
In the ongoing campaign trail, what have you seen and heard and what has surprised you?
 Ranil’s response was as follows – “This election is still wide open, with people carefully listening and considering their options for the future. I am the only one who has put up novel ideas promoting an export-oriented economy, women empowerment law, social justice commission, the parliamentary standards, implementing the 87 recommendations of the Priyasath Dep Commission, the agriculture modernisation and so on and so forth. No one has matched that or even addressed them. It is either maintaining the status quo or changing faces.”   

The second question was-  
 Compared to a month ago, how strong has your election bid become?
 Ranil’s reply was – “ It has picked up. My whole strategy was to actively engage after the nominations, not before. Others started earlier and did their campaign twice, but there is still nothing new to offer.”   
Ranil Wickremesinghe’s answers to the two specific questions indicated that the president was seemingly confident about his electoral success while acknowledging the fact that the election verdict was still open.   
Ranil’s responses in the “FT” interview illustrate the cool confidence he has been displaying during his presidential election campaign. People attending his meetings in the north, west, south, east and central parts of the Island have been impressed by the air of bonhomie, Ranil exudes. This easy-going, lively Wickremesinghe is a reminder of the man seen at the Mustangs tent during the Royal-Thomian big match.   
In Kilinochchi an unknown Tamil woman presents him with a cap as a token of her gratitude for the President’s constructive role in the country’s economic recovery. Ranil draws attention to it by wearing it cockily at a meeting held in Dambadeniya . He deliberately refers to Anura Kumara Dissanayake as his friend. When supporters hoot and jeer, Ranil retorts tongue in cheek”Hoo kiyanda epa.Eya mage mithraya”(don’t hoot, he is my friend).  
This cheerful nonchalance can emanate only due to two reasons in the current context of a presidential election. Firstly Ranil is supremely confident that he will be the winner in this presidential race. Secondly he is spiritually and mentally detached from the final outcome. As enunciated by the “Bhagavad Gita” Wickremesinghe is discharging what he perceives as his duty without any concern for the results whether positive or negative.   

Political Environment

Ranil Wickremesinghe’s cool confidence is puzzling to many because of the prevailing political environment. Thanks to the transported crowds, torrents of posters and leaflets, media advertisements and intensive social media campaigns, an illusion has been created where Anura Kumara Dissanayake and Sajith Premadasa are perceived as the front runners. Political pundits who are a dime a dozen in this modern world of internet and you tubes relegate Ranil to third place. Ranil’s confidence however is strikingly defiant of these pontifications.  
In the current presidential poll context AK Dissanayake’s campaign slogan is that the Country is Anuras. Premadasa’s slogan is Sajith is the winner. In stark Contrast Ranil Wickremesinghe’s campaign slogan was “Puluvan Sri Lanka/Iyalum Sri Lanka”. While Anura boasts the country is his and Sajith claims he is the winner, Ranil puts country above self and says Sri Lanka can.   
What then is the basis of Ranil’s confidence that he would be the victor? It is his reliance upon the people of Sri Lanka and the belief that they would do the right thing.   
 Each presidential election in the past has had a dominant theme. In 1994 Chandrika won promising peace and change; In 2010 Mahinda won on the strength of defeating the LTTE. In 2015 Maithripala came in as an alternative to the Rajapaksa dynasty. In 2019 Gotabaya became the winner due to concerns over national security and anti-minority sentiment.

“The Economy Stupid”

The catchphrase in former US president Bill Clinton’s successful election campaign in 1992 was “the economy stupid”. It was coined by Jim Carville a strategist on Clinton’s campaign team. It was widely aired on TV as “It’s the economy stupid” and captured the imagination of US voters. Bill Clinton won. 

“It’s the economy stupid” may very well be the catchphrase of the current Sri Lankan presidential election. The dominant theme of this election is the economy. Propagandists of Sajith Premadasa and Anura Kumara Dissanayake are trying to make the people believe that it is not and divert the people’s focus with other issues. The fact remains that the current economic crisis and future economic prospects for Sri Lanka are the key issues of vital concern and importance to the country.   
The economy and its revival or renaissance are Ranil Wickremesinghe’s strong points. It is his unique selling proposition (USP). The people of Sri Lanka experienced a severe economic crisis during Rajapaksa rule in 2022.Acute shortages of food, essential items, power, fuel, gas, water and kerosene prevailed. There was no foreign exchange to keep the economy going. A huge people protest movement known as “Aragalaya” flourished. Politically motivated elements using the “Aragalaya” as cover engaged in violence against MPs and burnt their residences and vehicles. A sinister plot was hatched to take over and occupy the president’s house, “Temple Trees”, Parliament, the Supreme Court, the President’s secretariat and Prime Minister’s office.  
It was under these dire circumstances that Ranil Wickremesinghe took over the reins of power first as Prime Minister and next as President. He stepped in only after the leader of the Opposition Premadasa, Ex-Army chief Fonseka and JVP leader Dissanayake refused to take over either through cowardice or inability or both.   
Ranil’s house along with his prized collection of books, antiques and paintings were burnt in a bid to deter him from assuming office. But the man who had been depicted by his detractors for long as a wimpy “Mr. Bean” proved that he was made of sterner stuff than “strongman” president Gota with a military background.  
 Ranil did not wilt under pressure. He re-established law and order by boosting the morale of a demoralised Police and Army. Ranil established a working Govt with MPs belonging to the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna(SLPP), dissidents and some others from smaller political parties. International support and IMF aid were procured. An economic revival project was undertaken in tandem with the Central Bank. Step by step normalcy was ushered in. The grave threat of famine and starvation was averted.   

International Monetary Fund

By cooperating fully with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Wickremesinghe Government ushered in the much needed economic relief. Some of the measures adopted have affected sections of the people adversely especially the under-privileged, vulnerable segments of society. The rupee has been strengthened. Inflation reduced. The tax base has expanded. The debt re-structuring programme has been implemented. The agricultural sector that was virtually demolished by Gota’s “fertilizer revolution” has recovered. Remittances from overseas Sri Lankans have increased. Tourist arrivals are on the rise.  
The problem earlier was both availability and affordability. Now there is availability but affordability is a huge problem to many. The Wickremesinghe Government has undertaken several initiatives to help ease the economic burden. Salaries of those in Government service have been increased including pensions. The ”Aswesuma” scheme enables poor families to receive monthly allowances ranging from Rs 5000 to 17,500 depending upon the sizes and needs of families. The Plantation worker daily wage has been increased from Rs 1000 to 1350. A further 350 as production incentive is on the cards if management companies are amenable. There is also the “Urumaya scheme by which people are given ownership of lands, houses and apartment/flats.  
Despite all this tangible progress, Ranil, his associates and thinking sections of the Sri Lankan public are fully aware that the country has only got a respite. Economically, the country is not out of the woods yet. Since there is a moratorium on repayment until 2028, Sri Lanka need not pay back our debts for the next four years. The problem will recur when the time comes to start repayment.  

Stability -Continuity-Growth

What is needed therefore is an enormous effort to enhance and expand the economy in the next few years. The past two years were a period of ushering in economic stability. The next four years have to be a period of achieving economic growth. The 2024 presidential election therefore is an interregnum that must ensure continuity. Who better than Ranil Wickremesinghe to oversee this continuity from the economic stabilisation phase to the economic growth phase?   
Ranil Wickremesinghe knows that he can do this. He thinks only he can do this best among the politicians in Sri Lanka now. He is not wrong. Ranil is the best suited and best equipped political leader to spearhead Sri Lanka’s economic renaissance just as he led Sri Lanka’s economic recovery. He wants another presidential term of office to lead the country and develop its economy further. This has been the underlying thread of his election campaign. Ranil is 75 years of age and will be 80 in five years. So this may very well be his last term if elected as president again.   
That is why Wickremesinghe is contesting the presidency. There is also another personal reason. Ranil has never been directly elected president by the people of Sri Lanka. In 2022,he was elected by a majority of MPs. So this is possibly his last chance to be elected by the people. Will the Sri Lankan people elect Ranil Wickremesinghe? He is confident that his people will not let him down.   

Telling the Truth

One of Ranil’s positive traits is his openness in telling people the truth and not making false promises. He does not promise to build factories in each town he visits or pledge to upgrade schools by procuring aid from townships in the USA. He does not say he will eradicate poverty by providing monthly cash allocations to families. Ranil also does not say he will abolish taxes or amend the agreement with the IMF. Instead Wickremesinghe has spoken the truth about the true state of the economy and has explained what he has done and what he hopes to do in the future.   
This candid openness seems to have served him and the country well in recent months. Despite strenuous efforts by rabble rousers and saboteurs to whip up a second “Aragalaya” against the Govt, these attempts have been failures. There are few takers among the people at large. It appears that the people know and understand what is at stake and what Wickremesinghe is up against. By the same token, the people are likely to support Ranil at the presidential election because they feel and realise , he is the best man to lead the country at this critical juncture.   
Speaking to a cross section of people with an insight into Ranil Wickremesinghe’s expectations, the impression I gathered was that he truly believes the people appreciate what he has done and hopes they would elect him president to continue with his work of economically emancipating Sri Lanka. It is important that the stability achieved currently should be transformed into growth. To put it another way the policies laid out in this phase should reach implementation stage in the next phase without disruption or distortion.   
Ranil opines that he is the man who can achieve this. His chief opponents Premadaa and Dissanayake are incapable of facing up to the formidable task. Indeed some of their pronouncements and promise aimed at garnering votes indicate that they have very little grasp or knowledge of the intricacies involved in resurrecting the economy. He is confident that the majority of Sri Lankan people would recognize this reality and vote for the best man – Ranil Wickremesinghe! According to informed circles, Ranil is in a buoyant mood after receiving “unofficial” reports that the bulk of postal votes -including those from the North and East-have been cast for him.  

JVP-NPP Fear Factor

Furthermore there is the fear factor. The Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) in its incarnation as National People’s Power (NPP) has done a political makeover to convince people that it is now different. Indeed many people including segments of the Sri Lankan Sinhala Diaspora believe in this change. Anura Kumara Disanayake has taken great pains to project himself as an acceptable “moderate”. People like Dr.Harini Amarasuriya enhance the NPP appeal.   
Yet the statements of people like Lal Kantha and Sunil Handunnetty make people worry. These concerns are aggravated by the fierce conduct of some pro-JVP elements in social media outlets. A new generation unmindful of history may have sprung up but the memories of 1971 and 1988-90 are evergreen among comparatively older generations.   
Adding to these fears are doubts and anxiety over what a potential AK Dissanayake presidency may do or not do. This applies to a potential Sajith Premadasa presidency too. Both are untested and untried. People are wary about how they will perform. The main concern of many people is that the current economic situation should not worsen. Even if it does not get better, it should not get worse. The plight of the people during Gota’s rule was a nightmare that should never recur. Many ordinary people interviewed by you tubers kept repeating “all we want is for this situation to continue without getting worse”.  

Ranil’s Proven Track Record

Again, it is here that Ranil Wickremesinghe scores over his political rivals. Unlike Sajith or Anura, Ranil has been in the saddle for two years as president. He has demonstrated that he can deliver the goods. Ranil has a proven track record as the president who took the lead in economically salvaging Sri Lanka. Sajith and Anura on the other hand are people who evaded or avoided their responsibilities at a critical time. They are now lurking like hyenas around the carcass of a prey felled by the lion. Ranil is a doer while Sajith is a sayer and Anura a talker.   
The so called chattering classes of Colombo and other cities have a different set of values to those from rural or semi-urban areas. The rural people or “gamey minisu” have a strong sense of gratitude. Many people are grateful to Ranil for the commendable leadership he provided to alleviate their problems. This is particularly felt by the women who compare their situation before and after Ranil’s take over. It is said that string grassroots pressure compelled many MPs from the SLPP to go against the Rajapaksas and throw in their lot with Ranil.   

Silent Majority

According to a senior UNP stalwart actively involved in Ranil’s election campaign, the “silent majority”is strongly for Wickremesinghe. “Those who vote for Ranil are not people who will shout from the rooftops that they are going to vote for him. They will quietly go to the polling booths and cast their votes for the gas cylinder on the 21st” he said.   
It remains to be seen as to how the people of Sri Lanka will vote on election day. Will they vote in large numbers for the cylinder? Ranil Wickremesinghe is confident they will do so because he believes they will be not voting for him alone but also for their own well-being and that of Sri Lanka’s future.   
D.B.S.Jeyaraj can be reached at 
[email protected]