Will Basil bring panacea for all economic ills?

The planned move to make the SLPP (Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna) National Organizer Basil Rajapaksa a Cabinet Minister after being sworn in as an MP  has occupied prominent space both in electronic and print media at least for the last couple of weeks. 

The SLPP, as a party, intended to make his swearing in as a parliamentarian an event of grand political celebration- a high profile occasion. True to its intention, the party has been successful in giving it such glamour through media coverage. It is so much so that the opposition also comments upon it attracting wider media coverage. Today, it is the talk that goes around in political circles with views being expressed for and against.
Rather than heavyweights, it is mostly the party’s lightweights who clamour for Basil Rajapaksa’s entry into Parliament, and then for his appointment as a Cabinet minister. 

"Political strategizing, organising skills, operational power and economic management are considered Basil’s strong points"

He is tipped to be appointed Economic Development or Finance Minister. His appointment is going to happen at a time when the country is enduring economic hardships - primarily induced by the pandemic- in terms of   rising cost of living, drop in state revenue, reduced economic activities, shrinking foreign exchange reserves and spike of import prices of items such as fuel. 

According to political rhetoric of the SLPP underlings or back benchers of Parliament, Basil Rajapaksa makes a comeback with a panacea for all economic woes confronting the Covid-19-hit nation.  To drive home their point, they cite him as the success behind economic development that took place in the country during the 2005/2015 Mahinda Rajapaksa era, particularly in the post war context.  He was the key decision-making maker in that Cabinet as far as economic matters were concerned. Therefore, many attributed economic achievements during that period to him. Political strategizing, organising skills, operational power and economic management are considered Basil’s strong points.

However, one cannot be removed from reality in responding to the present economic problems in local and global contexts.  For example, fuel prices cannot be brought down according to a commercial basis due to the spike in the world market. It will be possible only if the government subsidises. No immediate solution can be found to replenish the foreign reserves. The health authorities, backed by the security forces, are in the process of containing the pandemic.  Until the situation is normalized to satisfactory levels, economic activities   cannot be spurred in full swing.  Revival of tourism is inconceivable as long as Covid -19 continues to take its toll across the globe.

"Fuel prices cannot be brought down according to a commercial basis due to the spike in the world market"

The government has also come to terms with the ground realities in this regard.  That is why Tourism Minister Prasanna Ranatunga said Basil Rajapaksa was not someone with supernatural powers to reduce fuel prices immediately upon his return to Parliament.  Despite being an ardent supporter of the latter, Ranatunga uttered such remarks in public apparently to undo the hype otherwise created by his colleagues about economic miracles to be performed by the new Cabinet minister to be.

"His comeback will yield dividends to the government as believed by its interlocutors. However, it can lead to conflicts with the alliance partners. The SLPP backbenchers who are identified as loyalists of Mr. Basil Rajapaksa are at loggerheads with its allies"

Ahead of the 2019/2020 elections, the government leaders raised expectations of people to high levels.  But, the implementations of plans for economic rejuvenation went awry after the eruption of the pandemic.  People remain disillusioned since things did not move on in the way they expected.  In the post pandemic era, the economy will be different to what it was before.  So, for the government, original plans may warrant changes to suit to the new challenging environment.  

 The government will enter the latter half of its term next year.  Delivery during the next half of the term will be crucial for realization of its political ambitions at the 2024 presidential elections.  The government is now placed in a tricky situation needing fresh approaches to   resuscitate the battered economy. Solid economic performance is fundamental to its political success at the next election. 

"Rather than heavyweights, it is mostly the party’s lightweights who clamour for Basil Rajapaksa’s entry into Parliament, and then for his appointment as a Cabinet minister"

Basil Rajapaksa, as someone with a strategic mind, may have timed his comeback to   Parliament accordingly.   He will try to expend his energies in the revitalisation of economic activities. For that purpose, once sworn in as an MP, he will be appointed a Cabinet minister in charge of economic development.  It is still uncertain whether he will also get the financial ministry or not.  But, he can well be a key decision maker of the government sans that portfolio.  He did it actually during the 2005 /2010 period though the finance ministry remained in the hands of then President Mahinda Rajapaksa who is his elder brother. 

His comeback will yield dividends to the government as believed by its interlocutors. However, it can lead to conflicts with the alliance partners. The SLPP backbenchers who are identified as Basil loyalists are at loggerheads with its allies- the National Freedom Front (NFF), Pivithuru Hela Urumaya (PHU), Democratic Left Front and others.   As they make salvos at the leaders of these parties on and off, the common perception is that it is being done at the behest of Mr. Rajapaksa.  Therefore, his presence in the Cabinet or Parliament can fan these internecine problems. But, it all depends on how he performs as a leading Cabinet minister wielding governmental power.