Yunus enjoys global goodwill but faces domestic challenges

US President Joe Biden and Bangladesh interim government head Dr.Muhammad Yunus show good chemistry

The post-Sheikh Hasina interim government in Bangladesh headed by Nobel Laureate Dr.Muhammad Yunus (84), came into being in the midst of utter chaos. The regional and world powers watched the cataclysmic changes gingerly, unable to guess which way the volatile South Asian nation was headed.

But the Yunus government stabilised soon enough, obviously with the silent but solid backing of the Bangladesh army, which had played a constructive as well as a destabilising role in the past.  

The police had vanished, but law and order was restored by the army and a very responsible and spirited civil society which felt that Hasina’s exit had opened up new vistas not seen before in Bangladesh’s history. The task of cleansing the bureaucracy of Hasina’s corrupt and avaricious appointees began in right earnest but without creating a vacuum anywhere. 

India was understandably upset with the change of guard in Dhaka as it had a special relationship with Sheikh Hasina and her family over decades. Indo-Bangla bilateral relations had reached the pinnacle under Hasina’s 15-year rule. But the close association between the two was seen in a very unfavourable light in the new Bangladesh.

On its part, India was worried about anti-Indian outfits like the Jamat-i-Islami, and other radical and pro-Pakistan outfits gaining control, either directly or indirectly through the Bangladesh National Party (BNP), that had a history of antagonism towards India. Memories of BNP governments sheltering Indian separatists were fresh in Indian minds.

The role the Bangladesh army was also of concern as India had had a troubled relationship with it between 1975 and 1990 when army Generals either disrupted Bangladesh or ruled it in turns.  

The ultra-nationalist mass media in India seeking high viewership  stoked the fires of suspicion and antagonism towards the new Bangladesh. On its part, the media in Bangladesh stressed Indo-Bangla differences over a variety of sensitive issues and kept up the chant that Hasina must be extradited from India, putting New Delhi in a tight spot.

However, both the Yunus government and the Indian foreign policy  establishment treated the imbroglio over Hasina and other matters with exemplary restraint and caution.

Even as it was silent on the issue of Hasina’s extradition, New Delhi did not rock the boat by setting her up against Yunus as conspiracy theorists would want.

In fact, Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar expressed confidence that India’s relationship with Bangladesh will continue to be “positive and constructive”. Speaking at an event titled “India, Asia and the World” hosted by the Asia Society and the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York last Tuesday, Jaishankar decried the propaganda that India is trying to control every political aspect of its neighbours.

“That’s not how it works. It doesn’t work, not just for us, it doesn’t work for anybody else,” Jaishankar said. “At the end of the day,” he added: “Each of our neighbours will have their own particular dynamics. It’s not our intention to suggest that their dynamics must necessarily adhere to what we might consider as being better for us. I think this is the real world.”

And further: “Everybody makes their choices and then countries adjust to each other and find ways of working it out. Every country will have its own dynamics. In foreign policy, you try to read, anticipate and then respond to it.”

Stressing the particularly close ties with Bangladesh, Jaishankar said:  “What we have done over the last decade is projects of various kinds which have been good for both of us. Economic activity overall has picked up, and logistics of that region has improved.”

“ Something happens in the region every few years and people suggest that there is some kind of irretrievable situation out there, but you then see the correctives beginning to manifest themselves. I am confident that our relationship would continue to be positive and constructive.”

Rounding it off, Jaishankar said: “I’m very confident at the end of it all, in our neighbourhood, the realities of interdependence or mutual benefit and our ability to get along will serve both our interests. Those realities will assert themselves. That’s been the history.”

However, it is noteworthy that the Bangladesh Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi did not meet in New York on the side lines of the UN General Assembly session last week. In contrast Yunus had met India’s bete noire Pakistani PM Shebaz Sharif.

Be that as it may, the Bangladesh Foreign Advisor Touhid Hossain and Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar did meet. But there was no word about what was discussed, putting a question mark over the real state of affairs.

India-BNP Rapprochement 

A redeeming development is that India and the BNP are making tentative moves towards a rapprochement. The recent visit of the Indian High Commissioner to the BNP’s office is considered significant. BNP leaders assured the Indian envoy that the party will not allow Bangladesh to be used by Indian separatists, which is India’s principle concern.

Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury, a member of the BNP’s Standing Committee, told Dhaka Tribune that “There is no reason for relations between India and the BNP to deteriorate.”

US-Bangla

The United States had reasons to be the happiest with the change of guard in Dhaka given its tussles with Hasina over democracy, human rights and the anti-China Indo-Pacific architecture. It is also generally believed that the US indirectly supported the anti-Hasina movement and that Yunus was the US candidate for the Chief Advisor’s post.

Yunus met the US President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken on the side lines of the UNGA in New York. Blinken underscored US support and assistance but linked it to free and fair elections, observance of human and labour rights, media freedom and furtherance of an inclusive, democratic, inclusive Bangladesh without corruption.

Yunus met USAID Administrator Samantha Power who pledged US$ 199 million for resettlement of Rohingya refugees. The World Bank President Ajay Banga affirmed US$ 3.5 billion in loans for the energy sector. The Bangladesh media noted that Yunus received much attention from the elite US media, think tanks, and policy makers.

Yunus’ Reforms

In his August 25 speech, Yunus had outlined an ambitious vision for a “new Bangladesh centred on unity, transparency, and democratic renewal.”  On September 11, he laid out specific reforms for real change. Through his NGO Grameen Bank, Yunus had demonstrated how NGOs could drive powerful social and economic change where governments often struggled.

But Prof. Shafiqul Islam, of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University points out that running a government is an altogether different challenge. It requires navigating political complexities, balancing competing interests, and making painful compromises, he says.  

Islam said that Interim government’s reform agenda is promising. But it must ensure that reforms are not a substitute for democratic processes or alienating key political actors.

“Yunus’ ability to lead will depend on his skill in coalition-building and maintaining legitimacy in the eyes of both political elites and the public. Members of the Interim Government need to be cautious about becoming entangled in the very political games they seek to transcend. They must strike a delicate balance between being innovative reformers and astute politicians, ensuring that the vision of a new Bangladesh can survive the political process without being compromised by it,” he cautioned.

Six Commissions

Yunus has set up six commissions for a structured and transparent process for addressing corruption, inefficiency, and structural flaws. The commissions are tasked with delivering results within three months, after which consultations with political parties, students, and civil society will take place.

But Shafiqul Islam points out that the critical issue is the lack of representation for ordinary citizens in these commissions.

“Despite the student-public-led uprising that ousted the previous regime, decision-making remains concentrated among the educated elites and privileged classes, with limited input from the broader public, Shafiqul Islam notes.  

“To avoid past regime failures, Yunus must include all relevant  stakeholders. Nyay (ideal justice) and Niti (procedural justice) have to go together,” he urges.