India’s growing population and the role of its youth

As the global population passes the milestone of 8 billion people, experts say it brings both opportunities and challenges for India, a nation that's projected to pass China as the world's most populous country.

A country’s youth are the most important and dynamic segment of the population in any country. It is believed that developing countries with large youth populations could see tremendous growth, provided they invest in young people’s education, and health and protect and guarantee their rights. It is fair to  say that today’s young are tomorrow’s innovators, creators, builders and leaders.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has clearly understood the important role the youth of India would play in the country’s future. During a recent speech at a convocation ceremony, he said that the whole world is looking at India’s youth with hope because they are the growth engine of the country and India is the world’s growth engine. He stressed however that while it is a great honour, it is also a great responsibility.

Today, India is one of the youngest nations in the world with more than 62% of its population in the working age group (15–59 years), and more than 54% of its total population below 25 years of age. It was earlier estimated that the average age of the population in India by 2020 will be 29 years as against 40 years in USA, 46 years in Europe and 47 years in Japan. This gives India the edge of demographic dividend over other countries. The youth of today is increasingly becoming restless and struggling to remove the disparities. However, more efforts need to be put in, if India is to become free from the vicious circles of poverty, malnutrition, corruption, violence and unemployment. 

The essential role of youth who are filled with fresh ideas and not ideals, will help in take India towards a transparent civil society structure which can influence the political administration for the benefit of the society. It is only through a strong system of representation that democracy work and it is only through a strong youth representation that the dynamism and vigour of a country be maintained.
It is therefore important to acknowledge the role of civil societies in empowering youth towards strengthening of the democratic system of the country and sustainable development. The solution lies to effectively utilize modern tools in disseminating the belief among youth on their participation and representation in democracy through civil society initiatives.

In another major milestone for humanity, the global population hit 8 billion this year. The latest billion people were added during the last 12 years. India contributed the most towards the most recent billion, to the tune of 177 million people, while China added 73 million people during the same period.

India is projected to surpass China as the world's most populous country in 2023, according to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). It put India's population at 1.41 billion in 2022, compared to China's 1.43 billion for the same year.
By 2050, India is projected to have a population of 1.67 billion, higher than the 1.32 billion people forecast for China by the middle of the century.

However, the UN report said that China's contribution to the next billion will be negative. More than half of the projected global population increase by 2050 is expected to be concentrated in eight countries, one of which is India.

India is a young country with about 55% of its population under the age of 30 and over a quarter below 15 years of age. However, experts say demographic dividend phases do not automatically translate into economic growth, and without effective policy making, they may increase the number of people who are unemployed.

According to a recent Confederation of Indian Industry report, if India's demographic dividend was productively employed, growth prospects would brighten, helping it to leapfrog its GDP from the current $3 trillion to $9 trillion by 2030 and $40 trillion by 2047.
Youth dividend

Unemployment would only be a problem if the pace of skills development does not increase proportionately, according to Professor Aparajita Chattopadhyay from the International Institute for Population Sciences, who pointed out that more people need to be absorbed in the industry in the future.

"For now, unemployment of 7% is not something to worry about. Many developed countries have a rate of unemployment more than that of India," Chattopadhyay pointed out.

"But the concern is about the reservation policy that has become a political game changer and the proportion of reservation is increasing," she added.

While brain drain is increasing steadfastly and 3 in 4 Indians are going abroad and is among the highest in the developing world. If it continues, India's future can be affected.

Various studies have found that 23,000 Indian millionaires have left India since 2014 and that nearly 7,000 millionaires left in 2019 alone, costing the country billions in tax revenue. Since 2015, nearly 900,000 Indians have given up their citizenship.
India witnessed the sharpest increase in people migrating overseas, at nearly 10 million between 2000 and 2020, according to "International Migration 2020 Highlights," a report by the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. As of 2020, India's diaspora stood at about 18 million.

In order to prevent Indian youth from leaving the country in search of greener pastures, more Indian companies in pharmaceuticals, electronics, ICT, etc should be encouraged to employ the recent graduates with lucrative packages, allowances, and decent working conditions. This helps in encouraging the youngsters to work in India itself and earn the benefit of their merit.
As PM Modi had said earlier, “The present government’s initiative changed brain drain to brain gain.” Beyond just a tool for harnessing the diaspora to contribute to India’s development, the brain gain narrative is a powerful tool to enhance Modi’s appeal, legitimacy, and support. It is also a call to the Indian diaspora, especially in the West, to contribute to India’s development through foreign remittances, investments, and knowledge transfers. This narrative helps him project his ability to bring change to Indian society, which was the primary election plank he rose to power in 2014. 
While the UN report noted that it took about 12 years for the world population to grow from 7 billion to 8 billion, the next billion is expected to take about 14.5 years (2037), reflecting a slowdown in global growth.

The UNFPA said India's population growth appears to be stabilizing which shows that the country's national population policies and health systems are working. India's fertility rate — more or less the average number of children born per woman — had declined from 2.2 to 2.0 at the national level. It is estimated that the average must be 2.1 for the population to sustain itself.

Meanwhile, the role played by the youth in the nation-building is crucial to India. They are problem solvers, have a positive influence on other young people and the nation, and are extremely ambitious. They have the ability to create an identity for themselves and move the nation forward. However, they will not be able to do this without the support of family, community, Government and fellow youths. Then the youth can make their beautiful land flourish and shine in success.

The next 25 years are crucial for both you and India. It is the Amrit Kaal leading up to the 100th year of independence. India is certainly lucky that many young people will build their own future as well as India’s. So, their growth is India’s growth and their learnings are India’s learnings. The victory of India’s youth is India’s victory. So, when they make their plans for their future, they are no doubt automatically making plans for India too.