Sri Lanka for Asia-led prosperity and looks beyond the boundaries of South Asia

Last week, Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe delivered a speech at the 28th Nikkei Forum, Tokyo, advocating the Indo-Pacific, China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Outlook that has conflicts and rivalry over socio-economic and geopolitical interests, to back the Asia-led economy. He said, ‘Asian states having a voice in shaping the region’s role amidst the evolving geopolitics on the global stage’.

While advocating for the advancement of Asia, President Wickremesinghe seem not to speak on the   South Asian region, particularly in relation to India's prominent position as a major player and  extended his focus beyond South Asia, and the potential for collaboration and progress in East Asia and Far East Asia for the benefit of all Asians.

Sri Lanka being a member of China’s BRI that India is not in favour, felt obligated to remark on Asia-focused economic ideas where China stands strong and on competition with India. "We in Asia don't want to choose between the US and China," stated President Wickremesinghe.  Sounding that he was speaking on Asia behalf, he added, “Many of us (Asia) are unable to make that decision because we already made up our minds on Asia. We want an Asia that can handle the Indo-Pacific, the BRI, and the ASEAN Indo-Pacific Outlook," he pointed out clearly.

He also did not deny the fact that ‘Asia has become the crux of US China rivalry’. He went on to say, “the intensification of that rivalry in recent times has brought about the QUAD (between the USA, India, Australia, and Japan) and the Indo-Pacific on one hand and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on the other. One thing is certain, Asian countries do not wish to be forced to manage competing pressure from these two sides.”

Despite setbacks on the global stage, Asia has the potential for continued growth the Sri Lankan President said.  It was at this point he said that India’s role to be imminent. “China’s recovery, together with a healthy domestic demand in India, will be the main supports of growth for the region. Asia also has the advanced economies of Japan and South Korea contributing to the region’s development, through foreign investments and technology transfers,” he added.

While Sri Lanka asserts its nonaligned stance, it has incurred the displeasure of numerous Western nations, including neighboring India, due to perceived bias towards China. China's involvement in various megaprojects within Sri Lanka has not only granted them geopolitical advantages but has also emerged as the pivotal force determining the country's future development endeavors.

For instance, China has had applied pressure on successive Sri Lankan governments to promote Chinese interests within Sri Lanka and to convince the international community that the nation is not weighed down by insurmountable debt. Furthermore, China has exerted considerable influence in Sri Lanka's quest for a $2.9bn loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) by delaying the debt restructuring procedure because of its worries that the IMF has American-centric policies that could impose restrictions on Sri Lanka's ability to borrow in the future. China worries that an IMF loan could compromise its own BRI interests in Colombo too.

The concepts that the Sri Lankan President was backing about joining Asia-led economy needs a study:  Firstly, the Indo-Pacific, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and ASEAN Outlook are different regional frameworks or initiatives that have distinct objectives and approaches.

While there may be areas of overlap or potential cooperation among them, their alignment or integration into a single Asian-led economy would require weighty coordination and compromise among the participating countries when the concepts have their extreme geopolitical identity.

The Indo-Pacific concept, often championed by countries like the United States, Japan, India, and Australia, aims to promote cooperation, economic integration, and security in the broader Indo-Pacific region. It emphasizes principles such as freedom of navigation, respect for international law, and open markets.

Secondly, the BRI, spearheaded by China, seeks to enhance connectivity and infrastructure development across Asia, Europe, and Africa. It involves massive investments in projects such as ports, railways, highways, and energy infrastructure, with the aim of fostering trade and economic cooperation. It is also seen as a power challenge for China against the US, India, Japan-led Quad.

Thirdly, the ASEAN generated the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific to promote cooperation, inclusion, and the peaceful resolution of problems in the Indo-Pacific area. It underlines the significance of ASEAN and adherence to established international standards and structures.

However, ASEAN is unlikely to confront China as a whole since there are already far too many countries within the region that are gravitating toward Beijing. China has increased its presence in Southeast Asia through economic partnerships and investments. Countries like Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam have witnessed significant Chinese involvement in infrastructure projects and trade.

Efforts towards Asian regional economic integration, such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), have been underway for several years with the aim of enhancing economic cooperation and integration within Southeast Asia. These ongoing endeavors have demonstrated the possibility of regional economic integration, although achieving a unified Asian-led economy would entail broader and complex considerations.

The President even recognized that the Ukraine war has been interpreted in two contrasting ways and emphasized the importance of Asia finding a common ground. He said, “Most of the Asian nations prefer not to be involved in the Ukraine war, though some in the West decry this as an over-extension of neutrality. Nonetheless, diverse opinions on the Ukraine war have emerged within Asia.”

The President of the Island nation also said that the  G7 countries consider the Russia having  direct invasion of Ukraine, a violation of the UN Charter while,  outside the West, consider It as a more complex problem arising from the break-up of the Soviet Union and the inability of Europe to resolve this issue. Hence, a disinclination to get involved in the European war, he added. He noted that all nations must endeavour to understand and appreciate these different views and attempt to find a common meeting point so as to end this conflict after the predicted counter offensive is concluded. 

This he said, at the outset where there is a predicament situation prevailing where Ukrainians are being killed in the Russian-led war on them.  The Sri Lankan government’s stance to appreciate the different views is strangely incomprehensible when the fact remains China and Russia are strategic partners and cooperate on various global issues and Sri Lanka is unable to make its own choice as well caught between powers.

President Wickremesinghe further emphasized Asia's growing economic influence and highlighted the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) as a well-organized regional organization that facilitates dialogue between the United States and China. In contrast, the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) lacks a concrete regional political system and appropriate structures to effectively address economic and security matters. He underlined that the IOR remains amorphous in nature, lacking the necessary frameworks to handle such issues.

Sri Lanka's strategic location offers abundant opportunities for trade, connectivity, and diplomacy with diverse nations spanning South Asia, East Asia, the Middle East, and beyond. Despite these advantages, the country has not fully harnessed the potential of its strategic position.

While Sri Lanka has successfully hosted numerous conferences related to the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), the absence of an effective and concrete regional political system highlights the prevailing conflicts in the region. The rise of China, an East Asian country that has bolstered its influence in South Asia, has further contributed to tensions in the Indian Ocean Region.